“FACTS are stubborn things”, said John Adams in 1770 “and whatever may be our wishes , our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence”. After several postponements on grounds of alleged insecurity, finally, the Independent National Electoral Commission(INEC) will, baring any sudden unhinged event, conduct the remaining legislative elections in Rivers State on Saturday, December 10.
But this much is plain and evident : The wounds from last year’s general elections, and the March 19, 2016 chaotic, inconclusive one in which the Peoples Democratic Party in Rivers State emerged victorious, have not healed. The raw emotions persists and as divisive and negative unlike anything we have seen in this dispensation. It’s so because the All Progressives Congress, have remained sore losers, refusing to accept defeat. It’s also a testament to the deep divisions that will continue to exist regardless of the outcome of the re-run elections .
This Saturday, the bitter partisan battle that has become the hallmark of Rivers politics, will be tested for the umpteenth time. This is not an ordinary election. No election under the present political dispensation in the country has been as contentious and raucous as we have seen in Rivers State. It’s not for nothing. It’s a battle for the soul of the state.
The Inspector General of Police Ibrahim Idris said at least 20,000 police personnel, 20 gunboats and three helicopters would be deployed to Rivers State. We hope this is not a militarisation of the State , a legitimate concern raised by Governor Nyesom Wike. Heavy military presence could scare voters away from the polling booths.
Though neither Gov.Wike nor Chibuike Amaechi, current Minister of Transportation, will be on the ballot, the re-run could be a referendum on both men. Wike knows that his political career is on the line should the APC have the upper hand on Saturday. Ditto for Amaechi whose popularity in Rivers State has waned significantly. Failure this time around could signal a sunset on his political relevance.
Therefore, outcome of this re-run may well prove that. It’s is also by extension, a referendum on the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari. Many voters in Rivers, like many other states are angry with Federal Government policies that have raised inflation to 18.3 percent. Even though the President’s name will not be on the ballot, the names of some of his vocal surrogates are .
Almost nine months have come full circle after the March 19 re-run ended in chaos. The PDP was well ahead of the results released by the Independent National Electoral Commission before it halted further announcement of the results, citing violence, irregularities and insecurity for cancelling the remaining results .
It was disaster foretold, leaving Rivers State without representation in the National Assembly. It took the directive of the Senate to pressure INEC to agree to the December 10 deadline. All of this has raised many legitimate questions about the impartiality of INEC. That’s at the root of the ongoing bickering between Wike and INEC. It’s a legitimate concern that shouldn’t be ignored.
The December 10 re-run may well provide answer to that question. By all standards, the re-run as already stated will be a referendum on both Gov. Wike and Amaechi. One of the questions the voters will ask themselves is : Between Wike and Amaechi, whose administration has impacted more on the people to warrant their votes on the candidates on the ballot? Who between the two has passed the test of democratic leadership?
Amaechi has the Federal “might” behind him. He has not failed to boast with that power and authority. Only recently, he bragged that the federal government would counter whatever threat governor Wike might deploy on election day. This is troubling. Amaechi should take a lesson from this proverb : When you have a hammer, all problems look like nails.
But Wike maintains that his power and influence reside with the people. His message is resonating with the people as the PDP campaign moves from one local government to another as the D-day approaches .
It is unlikely that Rivers State has heard the end of a shameful inconclusive elections. Mark my words. This will boil down to how INEC handles the elections and the role of the security operatives deployed to maintain peace and orderly conduct of the polls.
In spite of the “above average” performance of the commission in the recent Ondo governorship poll, many Nigerians still doubt if the current INEC has what it takes, what’s required to be fair to all, without taking orders from “above”.
If the re-run poll is conducted in a free and transparent atmosphere, I don’t see how the APC will win more seats than PDP. It can only happen if irregularities happen. Recall the recent discovery of “fake” electoral materials and result sheets, allegedly in the hands of APC members. That allegation made by Wike is yet to be investigated.
I agree with former Deputy Speaker House of Representatives Austin Opara that Rivers people will vote overwhelmingly for the PDP to reward Wike for his infrastructural and human development initiatives in the State. These achievements are evident in the state. These are the facts that will separate the PDP from the APC on election day. The reality of Rivers politics is that the APC is not the preferred party of majority of Rivers people.
PDP is well received at the grassroots. The voters see Wike as a grassroot politician who speaks their ‘language’ and feels their pains. On the other hand, they see APC chieftains in the state as arrogant, self-serving and egotistical .One voter asked in anger : Is Nigeria better off now under APC-led government than under PDP?
Altogether, how the INEC conducts this re-run and the way the security personnel handle the entire exercise will be closely watched by both local and international observers. As the D-day draws closer, how prepared is INEC? The INEC chairman, Prof Mahmod Yakubu should understand that Rivers people, indeed Nigerians , are running out of patience with the spate of inconclusive elections in Rivers State. Nothing short of a free, fair and transparent elections will be acceptable on Saturday.
Rivers re-run: Our democracy on trial
