By Ray Onwuelo
The Nigerian nation is indeed at a crossroads and never before have we had it so colourful. Every Nigerian, at home and abroad, feels it so bad one way or another. But for most of us, it does seem that there is very little we can do to improve things.
This is because the path to the much needed transformation is riddled with immense difficulties with near impossibilities, some would say.
We have been through different developmental processes but have generally been so slow and sometimes retrogressive.
At 62 years, we have passed middle age in any life, including that of any independent nation.
The entity we call our Nigeria is in reality made up of different nation states. As we all know, there are different nations in the northern and southern regions of Nigeria.
These are subsumed by the quest and desire for one, united free and fair nation. We have a federal republic but in reality the federating units are majorly dependent on the centre, which hold enormous powers.
This has led to ever-subsisting struggle, one that has brought in agitation, intimidation, marginalisation and control. These are the very factors that tear apart the desired unity and progress of the country.
Nigeria as we have it today has a huge land area of 923,768 square kilometres, with Niger and Borno states leading with over 70,000 sqkm each.
This is a good fraction of the land mass of the second largest and second most populous continent on planet earth. It is blessed by its prime location in sub-Saharan West Africa, just north of the equator and just east of the Greenwich meridian. This has diverse good weather and geographic conditions stretching from the Sahel to Gulf of Guinea.
There are vast reservoirs of natural resources beneath the land and into the sea. Apart from these, God, in his infinite mercy, has bestowed a population of 220,000,000 of talented and gifted males and females as Nigerians. We are fast growing and currently seventh most populous country in the world.
Incidentally, in the midst of these blessings, there is abject poverty, suffering and hardship in the land. There is loss of hope and those who could migrate are doing so in doves.
The situation has not been different since soon after the excitement of Independence. Sadly, it has progressively worsened. Developmental indices have plummeted. How did we get this far and why?
The general election of 2023 gives us another opportunity to adjust the trajectory.
For the purpose of this conference, three frontline political parties, the All Progressives Congress (APC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP), have been painstakingly considered by the group known as Democratic Leadership.
They have traversed the 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory conferring with ordinary voters.
The prime emphasis is on the scheduled presidential contest of February 25, 2023. The candidates of the three major parties are Bola Ahmed Tinubu of APC, Abubakar Atiku of PDP and Peter Obi of LP.
These are great Nigerians who have served the country in various capacities and contributed to our advancement as a nation in many ways.
We shall look at their various attributes and the multifaceted factors that will influence their votes in a truly fair and free contest devoid of any adverse manipulations.
There are 93.4 million voters registered by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), some of whom have not yet collected their permanent Voter’s card (PVC). Of this, Lagos State tops the list with 7.06m, followed by Kano, 5.92m; Kaduna, 4.33m; Rivers, 3.53m; and Katsina, 3.51m.
These are followed by the following states: Oyo, 3.27m; Delta, 3.22m; Plateau, 2.78m; Benue, 2.77m; Bauchi, 2.74m; Niger, 2.69m; Ogun, 2.68m; Anambra, 2.65m; Borno, 2.51m; Edo, 2.50m; and Imo, 2.41m. Akw -lbom, Jigawa, Sokoto, Adamawa, Abia, Enugu, Kebbi and Taraba have 2m, with Ondo, Osun, Kogi and Zamfara 1.9m voters each.
These are followed by eight other states, with the FCT having 1.57m voters.
Other demographics as published by INEC are well known. Female voters are 47.5% and the North West zone with seven states has the highest number of voters at 22.25m. South West is 17.95m, North Central, 15.36m, South South, 14.44m; North East, 12.54m, and South East with five states has 10.90m.
Each of the presidential candidates has areas of strength and weakness, intertwined with the facts beholding of themselves and the nation.
Their various manifestos and proposed contract with Nigerians are now known to us. Of Importance are factors related to the candidates and to the nation.
Among the former are credibility, health, previous performance. Nation variables include unity, security, corruption, reforms and economy.
As it stands now, two of the candidate are likely to get the requisite 25 per cent of the votes cast in 24 or more states and the FCT, with the candidate of Labour Party, Mr. Peter Obi securing the widest and largest number of votes in a fair presidential election.
I am not unaware that some would be displeased to hear this but that is the true situation on the ground across the country, with a small margin of error.
Having arrived at the above conclusion following independent consideration of the choice of the candidates available to us, Democratic Leadership, with its arrays of domestic and diaspora resources, has aligned with the candidature of Mr. Obi of LP to intensify campaign in 11 northern states towards actualisation of a landslide victory at the presidential poll. May God help us.
Long live Nigeria.
• Onwuelo Esq writes from Abuja