By Omoniyi Salaudeen
Nigerians’ opposition against the threat of military action issued by the ECOWAS for the military interloper in the Republic of Niger to restore back democracy is increasingly becoming difficult for the authorities to ignore. Yet, the member states appear to be unyielding to the pressure to remove the threat of force from the table to allow for genuine and sincere dialogue with the coup leaders.
At its second extraordinary meeting held in Abuja on Thursday, the sub-regional body further passed another resolution putting the security chiefs in their respective countries on red alert.
In recent times, the Francophone countries in the West African sub-region have witnessed an alarming trend of military coup d’état culminating in the shrinking of democratic governance. Top on the list of countries that have fallen under military control are Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso, and Chad, among others. Lately, the Niger Republic, Nigeria’s immediate neigbour in the northern fringes, was added to the list by the recent ouster of President Mohammed Bazoum. Perhaps, part of the reason for the seeming restiveness of the ECOWAS leaders, especially Nigeria’s President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, is the burning desire to nip the contagious effect of the trend in the bud. And unless there is a last-minute change of mind, the military option may be inevitable, as the junta continues to routinely snub emissaries sent to initiate diplomatic dialogue as an alternative to war.
With the current state of things, there is a slim chance that the coup leaders would back down on their hardline position not to tolerate any form of external intervention. On this stance, they have been emboldened by the promise of support from their counterparts in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Guinea. In a pre-emptive move to secure the support of the populace for the government, they have also gone a step further to appoint an interim minister who would help them to steer through the turbulent waves of opposition from the sub-region.
For the ECOWAS, the big dilemma now is how to strike a delicate balance between the options of diplomacy, which seems not to be working, and military action, which is equally very unpopular among the stakeholders, especially in Nigeria, the home country of its Chairman, President Tinubu.
Tinubu had sent three different delegations to the coup leaders for dialogues to revert to the old constitutional order, but all to no avail. First, the President of the Republic of Benin, Patrice Talon, was sent there, he was ignored. His counterpart in Chad, Mahamat Déby, was also detailed later for the same assignment, he left unattended to. Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar (rtd) and Sultan of Sokoto, Abubakar Sa’ad, have also had their share of diplomatic neglect.
Some pundits have blamed the recalcitrant attitude of the junta on the initial wrong approach adopted by the ECOWAS by declaring military action when peaceful dialogue has not been fully explored or exhausted. In its hasty resolution at its first meeting in Abuja, the regional body instituted a number of punitive sanctions against the coupists to force them into submission. These included the closure of all land borders with Niger, imposition of flight ban, cutting off of electricity supply, and stopping goods in transit from Niger to Lagos, and other eastern sea ports, among others. Yet, they have remained largely undaunted.
Many people are now in doubt whether the option of negotiation can do the magic under the current face-off between the ECOWAS and the military leaders in Niger. If it doesn’t, then military action may become inevitable. But as far as Nigeria is concerned, Tinubu may be on his own. One, the Senate has already rejected his request for approval for military deployment.
Instead, the lawmakers urged the ECOWAS member states to explore political and diplomatic options available to them over the use of military action to resolve the crisis in Niger. Secondly, there is already a rising groundswell of opposition against the forceful occupation of Niger under whatever guise.
While it is quite obvious that ECOWAS may not want to lose its face by backing out of military threats if the junta remains adamant, the use of force doesn’t sit well with the people. The question now is: Can Nigeria lead a war on Niger and come out of it unscathed? The answer is no. Both within the civilian populace and security experts, there is a preponderance of opinions against going to war with the coup leaders, especially during the precarious economic situation in the country.
Instead, the call is on the new administration to focus its effort on fixing the socio-economic and security challenges facing the country rather than going into an unpopular war that would bring further misery and poverty to the already traumatized citizenry.
A chieftain of the Peoples Democratic Party, Chief Bode George, who is a former director of the Nigerian National War College, in his reaction, warned against a needless conflict with Niger even if diplomatic measures prove ineffective.
“My appeal is that the ECOWAS heads of state should be more careful. What do we have as a benefit from going to war with Niger? War is not a tea party. It is better to jaw-jaw than to war-war. Nigeria as a nation, have we settled down? Looking at the economic situation in this country today, people are still hungry, they are angry. The insecurity in the land is unmatchable. When they start the war, they would expect the big brother, Nigeria, to pump money into it.
“The last time we went to ECOWAS, we were much more stable economically in this country. So, why do we want to commit funds that we would use to develop the country to fight a war? Let’s help ourselves first before we help others,” he advised.
Former Minister of Foreign Affairs and UN Permanent Representative, Aminu Wali, shared the same sentiment, when he said: “The whole of ECOWAS is looking up to Nigeria for this war and we have our own situation.”
Speaking on Arise TV interview monitored by Sunday Sun, he said: “When we look at Nigeria today, we need our resources; we need our military to bring peace and security in our country. If we cannot secure ourselves, how can we now decide to use the meager resources that we have to go and start funding a war in a foreign country?
“I feel sorry for Tinubu. Going to war is not an option. He has already created within Nigeria the opposition to invade Niger. The president should have consulted the various stakeholders which could have stopped what happened in the Senate. For me, the responsibility of the welfare of the people of this country, first and foremost, should be of concern to Tinubu.”
According to him, it will be very difficult for the ECOWAS to secure the approval of the UN Security Council to apply force in Niger. And if it does, the war will be a proxy war, especially considering the current situation between Ukraine and Russia, on the one hand, and the position of Europe and America on the other hand.
His words: “ECOWAS cannot go to war until it secures the approval of the UN Security Council which is already polarised. Nobody can go to war with any sovereign nation without the stamp of the Security Council.
“If there is going to be a war in Niger, it is likely to be a proxy war like what is going on in Ukraine between Europe, America, and Russia. Proxy war is going to be long drawn and it is going to affect us negatively at the end of the day.
“What we are going to get is negative. It is going to be difficult to draw a line between Nigerian and Nigeriens because 99.9 per cent of people in Niger speak Hausa. There may be different tribes, but Hausa is their lingua franca. Even our own intelligent sources are going to be comprised because you cannot differentiate between Nigerians and Nigeriens.
“It is not going to be easy for us in terms of resources and human losses. Lives have to be lost. So, it is a very difficult situation.
“The first priority for any Nigerian is Nigeria. If we get involved without the consensus of the international community, then we are going to come back with bloody noses. A lot of countries are not saying anything and all of them know where they are going, but won’t tell you what they will do behind the scene. So, you never know, Russia maybe with the coupists. In fact, they are.”
Prof Usman Yusuf, a Professor of Hematology, Oncology, and bone marrow plantation, who has played the role of interfacing with non-state actors within the ungoverned space between Nigeria and Niger, while analyzing the situation vis-à-vis the option of war, also said: “We in the North are tired of war. We have been at war for 14 years since 2009 and nine years of bandits and kidnappers and you are bringing a fresh war to us. Long before the creation of these two entities called Nigeria and Niger, we had shared a common heritage with Niger in our culture, religion, and our languages.
“The 19 states in Northern Nigeria are saying no to unprovoked war with Niger. His primary responsibility is to Nigerians, not the ECOWAS. And for goodness sake, where is he going to get the troops from? The Nigerian military is already overstretched all across the 36 states of this country. He should be very careful not to do the bidding of the Western world. The fight in Niger is not our fight. It is going to be a proxy war between Russia and NATO.
“We say no to war and we are not going to support any war. If he takes the decision to go to war, he is on his own. Even if he is the chairman of ECOWAS, we have to give him the approval to do that. Going to war, sending troops to Niger Republic will be a disaster. We have had our own share of military takeover in Nigeria, nobody sent troops to us. What of Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Chad, nobody sent troops there.
“Military option is not the option. Instead of starting a fresh war, we want you to close the war of Boko Haram, banditry, and kidnapping. We want you to give a marching order to the military to end these wars. We want these wars to end and end now. It can be done. We don’t want it to be a forever war. Our societies have been devastated; the economy has been devastated, our schools, hospital, and infrastructure devastated. Those who voted for you voted for you to bring an end to this war. That is your mandate from Nigerians, not the ECOWAS. We will mobilize Nigerians of good conscience against this war. We in the North will not support any form of aggression against the Niger Republic. You and your military should look inward and end this Boko Haram that has been plaguing us for 15 years. Do not leave this as an abandoned project and move to another theatre of war.
“First, take that threat of violence off the table. That is why they refuse to see our elders. Start serious and sincere negotiations. Pressure the junta to have a transition timetable to restore democracy as soon as possible.”
The Arewa Consultative Forum, in its latest release, also called on ECOWAS to immediately suspend the sanctions imposed on Niger.
This call followed the expiration of the one-week deadline earlier given to the military regime in Niger to restore democratic rule in the country.
Prof Tukur Muhammad-Baba, publicity secretary of the ACF, in the statement called for more dialogue with the junta to prevent a further breakdown of talks.
The statement reads in part: “Nigeria and Niger have had brotherly relations over the years and the ACF upon reviewing the latest political impasse, economic sanctions, and expiration of the one-week deadline given to the military (junta) in Niger have come to the conclusion that dialogue remains the best option to avoid a catastrophic occurrence of events between the two nations and the West African sub-region. We should utilise all available goodwill, diplomatic, political, economic, and human assets to win back the confidence of the people of Niger, who have, historically, come to regard Nigeria as a Big Brother!
“Towards this end, and to boost confidence measures: The ACF urges President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and ECOWAS to review the situation and restore full dialogue with the Nigerien military (junta) through the immediate lifting of the economic blockade and other sanctions imposed on the country as a sign of goodwill to facilitate swift dialogue.”