•How the Obi phenomenon caused massive upheavals in Nigeria’s political landscape
By Henry Akubuiro
By Monday, February 27, 2023, when the final results for the 2023 presidential election in Lagos State were collated and announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the entire country was agog. As soon as Peter Obi’s Labour Party was declared the winner of the election in Lagos over its rival parties, the internet went abuzz with excitement among the supporters of Obi and neutrals, who rarely witnessed such upset in Nigerian elections.
Obi’s Labour Party had defeated the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC); the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the New Nigeria’s Peoples Party (NNPP) as well as other 14 other political parties.
Lagos, hitherto, was the stronghold of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, the two-term governor of the state, and it was, going by precedent, expected to be won by the ruling party, the APC, for it had always been a hard nut to crack for opposition political parties since 1999. But history was just on the cusp of being rewritten.
But Obi’s strong showing in Lagos wasn’t a flash in the pan, as it was to become a precursor for a gale of political wind that swept all over the country, though the presidential election was eventually won by the ruling Party’s candidate, Bola Tinubu.
Before now, the Labour Party wasn’t among the fancied political parties in Nigeria. Its greatest success was perhaps the emergence of Olusegun Mimiko as the governor of Ondo State in 2009 as the Labour Party governorship candidate, having regained his mandate through the court after claims that he was rigged out in the 2007 governorship election by the PDP.
However, when the first batch of Nigeria’s general election was concluded on February 25, 2023, for Abuja seats, new heroes, apart from its presidential candidate, Obi, had emerged either as Senators or members of the House of Representatives.
Obi’s entry to Labour Party and party’s emergence as third force
A third force denotes a political group or party acting as a check on conflict between two established power blocs. Before now, a third force in Nigeria’s political terrain didn’t exist in the real sense of it. There had always been two dominant parties.
In the first republic, the Northern People’s Congress (NPC) and the National Council of Nigeria and Cameroon (NCNC)) were the dominant parties with nationwide spread, while the Action Group (AG), led by Chief Obafemi Awolowo, was more of a regional party concentrated in the western part of the country.
By 1979, when democracy was restored to the country after more than a decade of hiatus occasioned by a series of military coups, NPC had morphed into the NPN (National Party of Nigeria), NCNC into the NPP (Nigeria People’s Party), and Action Group into UPN (Unity Party of Nigeria).
In the presidential election won by the NPN that year, there was a wide gap between the NPN and the second, UPN. In fact, the NPP, which was supposed to be the third force, didn’t totally control its stronghold in the old Eastern Region (comprising present day South-East and South- South regions), nor did it make forays into the western region or the core north (North-West and North-East). This pattern was repeated in the 1983 general election when Alhaji Shehu Shahari’s NPN ran away with the presidency, allowing Awo’s UPN and Zik’s NPP to chase mere shadows. Once again, the third force didn’t live up to the billing.
General Ibrahim Babangida’s experiment with two-party system finally put the nail on the coffin of any third force in Nigerian politics, as existing political structures in the country were collapsed into Social Democratic Party (SDP) and National Republican Convention (NRC), which led to the emergence of Chief MKO Abiola as the winner of the oft talked about June 12, 1993 presidential election over Alhaji Bashir Tofa’s NRC, which, unfortunately, was annulled by General Babangida’s regime.
By 1999, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) had emerged as the dominant political party in Nigeria, with other political parties, led by the AD (Alliance for Democracy) mounting an ineffective challenge to the country’s highest political stool. The pattern was repeated in 2003 when Obasanjo’s PDP stole the show.
Buhari’s reentry into the fray with the ticket of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) merely produced the impact of a burrowing chipmunk, compared to an imposing elephant, as the party failed to upset the two major parties as a third force. Also, in the 2011 election, the hope of a third force faded into obscurity as the big guns ran the show.
The merger of AC and Buhari’s CPC in the lead up to the 2015 general election led to the dethronement of the PDP. Even at that, it was a two-horse race between the PDP and the new APC. The All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) which was supposed to give them a run for their money didn’t come to the party.
While some smaller parties adopted the major candidates for the presidential election, most parties in the country were just there to make up the numbers as parties that once upon a time ran for the presidency, with nothing substantial to show for their effort, or lack of it.
The two-horse presidential race also became an entrenched spectacle in Nigeria’s presidential election in 2019, as the ruling APC and PDP went to duel again, represented by the incumbent president, Muhammadu Buhari, and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, among others. Again, no third party in Nigeria was strong enough to mount a serious challenge to the two.
For the umpteenth time, history was about to repeat itself in the recent 2023 presidential election when Atiku Abubakar’s PDP and Bola Tinubu’s APC were set to face off. But something happened along the way that changed the complexion of Nigeria’s predictable political landscape.
The gentleman agreement in the PDP that stipulated that the party’s presidential aspirant should go to the south was suddenly jettisoned after the north had had its turn, leaving it open to all comers. Peter Obi, one of the leading PDP presidential aspirants, felt shortchanged as a high flying southern candidate (from the South-East) tipped for glory, and pulled out of the race, leaving Atiku Abubakar and Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike, as the main contenders.
Against the odds, the Labour Party opened it arms to the former Anambra State governor on May 27, 2022, to run for the presidency as its standard bearer when it already had its own candidate, thereby increasing the traffic of the party’s membership nationwide, with many aspirants banking on his goodwill to contest for positions at national and state levels.
But, given Nigeria’s penchant for writing off any party outside the major parties, Obi’s defection to the Labour Party was seen by some observers as a scuba diving into an uncertain political future. But Obi believed in the new flag he was flying, and his teeming supporters, under the banner of Obidients, amplified the decibels of their vuvuzelas.
The Obidients political movement
Sequel to the 2020 EndSars protests across the country, spearheaded by disenchanted Nigerian youths protesting against police brutality and bad governance, a sizable army of disgruntled young Nigerians, who still felt aggrieved with the status quo and their aborted agitation, morphed into pesky online Voltrons. Soon, their quest for national rebirth found a rallying point in Peter Obi, who seemed to share a common conviction to upset the apple cat.
Drawn from different ethnic groups, made up of different sexes, this group saw the political establishment and anybody leaning towards them as their enemies. Deploying caustic language, drama skits and cyber-bullying, they became a “nuisance” to ideological and political divides. Reno Omokri, popular UK based social media influencer and former media aide to ex-president, Goodluck Jonathan, endured a barrage of attacks for flying different kites from the Obidients.
For the young redeemers, Obi was a departure from the typical Nigerian politician’s noisome pestilence. Noted for his frugality, development-oriented policies as a former two-term governor of Anambra State and having a vision for a new Nigeria based on equality, he came across as Mr. Clean of Nigerian politics.
Little wonder the vanguards of EndSars movement, including the music group, Psquare; the rapper, Falz; the social media influencer, Aisha Yesuf; the ace comedian, Mr. Macaroni; among other Nigerian youths, sold Obi as the political messiah of this age on a mission to salvage a national ship in the throes of damnation. Also, they were tired of older politicians, Obi being 61 years and younger than other frontrunners.
To the opponents of the new political movement, the Obidients were just a group of noise making smart Alecs and an unruly coterie on social media without PVCs. But this outright dismissal proved to be contrary to the teeming numbers who thronged different local government areas and collection centres nationwide to collect their PVCs. Interestingly, 71 per cent of those who completed their voter registration were aged between 18 and 34, according to Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). A new political consciousness had spiralled now.
The impact of the Obidients and Obi’s nationwide acceptance reflected in most of the polls conducted by independent, international and national bodies before the general election, which projected Obi as the candidate to beat. Hopes, then, were high on the eve of the presidential election on February 25 that Obi was on the way to becoming the first president of Nigeria of the Igbo extraction.
And indeed, there were many people who dismissed Obi as lacking the political “structure” to mount any serious challenge to the two major contenders. Structure, in the Nigerian sense, means parties with widespread party offices, elected governors, and parliamentarians at state and national levels, who are closer to the grassroots, and who, too, would easily connect with the electorate and sway voters to their parties. But what Peter Obi lacked in “party structure”, he seemed to make up for in the unity of purpose of the ubiquitous Obidients, Christians querying the APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket, labour onions, traders, students, teachers and commoners desirous of a change.
Besides, prior to the presidential election, APC was a divided house, following the party primaries. Senator Ahmed Lawan was, at one point, seen as the Northern consensus candidate. The incumbent Nigerian vice president, Prof Yemi Osinbajo, who ran with Tinubu, fell out of favour with the leadership of the party when he lost his quest to be the party’s presidential candidate. Also, the former Minister of Transport, Hon. Chibuike Amaechi, one of the aspirants in the APC primaries, kept a distance when he failed in his bid. Those developments were seen as the Labour Party’s gain. Just like the APC, the PDP was also struggling with its own internal wrangling. Following the party primaries, a major contender, Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike, who came second to Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, formed a group of aggrieved PDP governors, called G5, which included the Benue State Governor, Samuel Ortom; Enugu State Governor, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi; Abia State Governor, Okezie Ikpeazu; and Oyo State Governor, Oluseyi Makinde. The Labour Party was also expected to benefit from that face-off. But, more than anything else, it was the simplicity, charm and persona of Peter Obi and what he represented in Nigerian politics that promised to be the icing on the cake for the Labour candidate in his charge for the nation’s vaulted seat.
Shocking results by Labour Party nationwide
As registered Nigerian voters thronged to the polling unit across the country on February 25, it was still unclear which of the four major candidates would carry the day. Traditionally, the major presidential candidates were supposed to do well in their geopolitical zones, but what played out as the election results began to trickle in was almost unbelievable.
The Obidients began to saturate the social media with election results aggregated at their polling units, which, most of the time, reflected the progress of their choice candidate. Lagos, as the commercial capital of Nigeria, the most populous city in Nigeria and Bola Tinubu’s base, was the cynosure of all eyes. Cases of ballot intimidation, ballot box destruction and electoral violence were surfaced in the media and were circulated widely beyond the country’s shores. In some cases, police and soldiers were drafted to the reported scenes to save the situation. The inability of INEC to promptly upload the election results also got the Obidients raving on social media.
The first major upset in the Nigerian presidential election was the fall of Lagos to the Obidients. Out of 1,347,152 voters accredited for the election in Lagos, Peter Obi won with 582,454 over his closest challenger, Bola Tinubu of the APC, who scored 572, 606 votes; and Atiku Abubakar of the PDP who polled 75,750 votes. Just as he did in Lagos, Peter Obi swept the votes in Nigeria’s political capital, Abuja, showing the gravitation of the Nigerian elites. Results from the FCT also showed that the third force won with a wide margin, scoring 281,717 votes against Tinubu’s 90,902 votes and Atiku Abubakar’s 74,199 votes. At the end of the presidential election, results declared by INEC on March 1, 2023, Obi’s Labour Party had won 11 states overall, plus the : Lagos, Enugu, Nasarawa, Ebonyi, Abia, Delta, Anambra, Plateau, FCT, Edo, Cross River State and Imo, narrowing missing Benue State.
Though the Labour Party came third in the final collated presidential results, which are still being contested by opposition parties, the votes were as encouraging as those of other major contenders, with over six million votes, with impact reaching different geopolitical zones —South-East, South-West, South-South and North-Central and, to some extent, the North-East.
Interestingly, Labour Party created a huge upset in the home state of the eventual winner of the election, APC’s Tinubu (Lagos). It also won in the home state of APC’s national chairman (Nasarawa), the home state of PDP’s vice presidential candidate, Ifeanyi Okowa (Delta), and the home state of Solomon Lalong, APC’s Director-General. Contrary to the dismissal of Obi as an “actor” and an unknown political candidate, he surprised Kaduna State Governor, El Rufai, by scoring over 25 percent of the votes cast in his state.
So far, Obi’s Labour Party has produced six senators from the authenticated INEC results. The greatest casualties of Labour Party’s ascendancy were the former Abia State Governor, Okezie Ikpeazu, and Enugu State Governor, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, who both failed to make it to the senate, no thanks to Labour Party’s candidates.
In the FCT, Ireti Kingibe, who had, hitherto, contested several times for a senatorial seat in Abuja, finally got her wish, courtesy of switching over to the Labour Party, riding on Obi’s goodwill. The Labour Party also claimed 12 seats in the National Assembly from different parts of the country, including unexpected places outside its major base.
Unbelievably, a commercial motorbike operator, Mr. Donatus Mathew from Kaduna State rode himself to national glory with a Labour Party ticket (for Kaura federal constituency), an unprecedented victory, defeating the incumbent, Gideon Gwani, of the PDP.
Also, a candidate of the Labour Party Chimaobi Sam Atu was declared winner of Enugu North/Enugu South Federal Constituency election. He is described as a vigilante and a bus driver.
In Eti-Osa constituency, Thaddeus Attah of the Labour Party, defeated popular musician, Bankole Wellington (Banky W.) of the PDP as well as the incumbent, Babajide Obanikoro of the APC, who is the son of former Minister of State for Defence, Musiliu Obanikoro
Led by Julius Abure and created in 2002, the Labour Party (LP), a social democratic political party, was previously known as the Party for Social Democracy (PSD). It aims to promote and defend social democratic principles and ideals for the purpose of achieving social justice, progress and unity.
From its recent fairytale successes at the national polls, the party, no doubt, has etched its name in Nigeria’s political folklore. Will more surprises come its way?