From Femi Folaranmi, Yenagoa and George Onyejiuwa, Owerri
AS the November 11 governorship election
draws near in Bayelsa, Kogi and Imo states,
there are fresh fears across the states that the
exercise might be marred by the spate of inse-
curity that has been spreading round the three
states in the past weeks. There is also the fear
that flooding might pose a problem, thereby
fuelling voter apathy, especially in Bayelsa and
Kogi states.
Bayelsa
In Bayelsa state, fear is rising that the 2023
flood and violence may disrupt the elections.
The fears are not misplaced because of the pe-
culiar terrain of Bayelsa State and the volatile
nature of its politics.
In 2022, Bayelsa State was one of the worst
hit states with 70 per cent of the state covered
with water while property worth millions, in-
cluding road infrastructure, was destroyed.
Checks indicated that with the Independent
National Electoral Commission (INEC), po-
litical parties and candidates already in election
mood with electioneering in full swing, the
recent warning by the National Emergency
Management Agency( NEMA) has created
palpable fears in the people.
Investigations by Saturday Sun revealed
that most coastal communities that suffer from
perennial flooding have since stopped all burial
ceremonies because of the water level. Also,
the water level has risen in the last 96 hours,
fuelling fears that flood could be upon the
people. The situation has not been helped with
the heavy rain that fell on Thursday October
12 which many feared could trigger the 2023
flooding.
However findings in communities that are
prone to flooding like Adagbabiri in Sagbama
Local Government Area, Odi in Kolokuma/
Opokuma Local Government Area, Otuoke
in Ogbia Local Government Area, Tombia ,
Polaku and Obogoro communities in Yena-
goa Local Government Area, and Akenfa,
Amarata, Akenfa and Agudama in Yenagoa
metropolis showed that the water level has not
given rise to any cause for alarm. The Resident
Electoral Commissioner (REC), Mr Obo Ef-
fanga has downplayed the effect of flooding on
the conduct of the election.
According to him INEC, has been conduct-
ing elections in Bayelsa for years and is aware
of the peculiar terrain for it to know how it can
plan to hold elections.
He noted that due to the constitutional provi-
sions for the conduct of the elections, INEC is
ready to overcome the challenges of flooding
to conduct elections in Bayelsa just like it con-
ducted elections during the COVID-19 period.
An environmentalist, Mr Morris Alagoa has expressed confidence that the 2023 flood from
recent reports would not be as terrible as that
of 2022.
“Even with the said release of water from
Lagdo Dam, I am still convinced beyond rea-
sonable doubt that Bayelsa State won’t be so
badly affected at the end of the day. We are
yet to hear that Lokoja in Kogi State has been
overwhelmed by the flood. We are yet to hear
that Onitsha has been inundated by the flood. It
takes more than a month for Bayelsa to get the
negative impacts of flooding after it hits Loko-
ja hard. It takes over two weeks before Bayelsa
State would feel the negative impacts, after it
has caused havoc in Onitsha, Anambra State.
“From the above and, considering the fact
that the flood would be receding anytime from
the middle of this month, October, a late arrival
of Lagdo Dam water would only flush into
the Atlantic Ocean without overflowing river
banks in Bayelsa state.’’
While the people are hopeful that the flood
would not have a devastating effect on the con-
duct of the elections, the same could not be said
of the threat of violence.
INEC had recently expressed deep con-
cern over the escalating security concerns in
Bayelsa State. The alarm by INEC is not an
exaggeration. The stakes are very high for the
Bayelsa State governorship election especially
between the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)
and the All Progressive Congress (APC).
The two parties are not strangers in political
contests and the fear is that the forthcoming
election could be a repeat of the 2019 contest
which left several people, including police of-
ficers, dead a few days to the election. Already
Governor Douye Diri, who is also the candi-
date of the PDP, and his main challenger, Ti- mipre Sylva of the APC have been locked in
bitter recriminations over threat of violence in
Nembe and Ogbia.
Diri had accused Sylva of enthroning vio-
lence in Opu- Nembe, Nembe Local Govern-
ment Area with a plan to make it spread to
Brass and Ogbia all in Bayelsa East Senatorial
District as a test run for what the opposition
party is plotting for the entire state.
Recently Diri had accused Sylva of plan-
ning to import thugs into Ayama- Ogbia being
a strong-hold of the PDP to cause mayhem. He
has therefore directed the security agencies to
keep its eyes on Sylva and his party. Sylva on
the other hand has fingered Diri in the turmoil
and reign of terror that ravaged Opu- Nembe
because he sees the place as the stronghold
of the APC and wants to destabilise it by all
means.
Just recently the Concerned People of Nem-
be called on the Federal Government to nip in
the bud alleged plans by PDP to import thugs
into Nembe under the guise of campaign be-
cause of its fixation to subjugate the people. In
August, the Inspector- General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun had to deploy a special team of
Mobile Policemen and SWAT to Opu- Nembe
following attacks on people believed to have
sympathy for the APC. Some suspects were
later arrested with arms and ammunition.
As it stands, the security agencies would
need to allay the fears of the electorate over
violence during the governorship election.
Kogi
In less than one month to the Kogi governor-
ship election, there are spates of violence being
reported across the state especially between
APC the ruling party and the Social Demo-
cratic party. Sometimes in August, a notorious
political thug aka Okwo, who was reputed to
be close to some powerful individuals in the
state, was killed. Okwo was in 2011 sentenced
to jail for a murder-related case but was said to
have been released along with some hardened
criminals on the promise that they would work
for some political groups in the state. The man
was accused of involvement in many violent
incidents in the state during the 2019 governor-
ship election, including the murder of some
political figures.
The man was captured recently and killed.
Also, within the last two months, the SDP
campaign office in Lokoja was razed down by
people suspected to be opposition thugs. The
candidate, Murtala Ajaka and the APC lead-
ers have accused each other of assassination
attempts.
There was a clash between the governor’s
convoy and that of the SDP candidate in Koto-
karfi in July which led to serious violence with
sporadic gunshots. Ajaka claimed that his vehi-
cle was targeted and that he barely managed to
escape assassination. However, the state gov-
ernment claimed he was the one who broke
into the governor’s convoy. Early this month,
another clash between the APC and SDP sup-
porters occurred in the Kotonkarfi which led to
the death of an APC lady supporter. The SDP
claimed the APC thugs came to the venue of
their rally and shot sporadically destroying
their chairs and canopies.
Last Saturday, five thugs allegedly belong-
ing to one of the political parties were arrested
by a military task force in Ayingba where they
were said to have caused mayhem and killing
two persons. All this has spread fear that the
coming election might be marred by insecurity.
Imo
Less than 30 days to the 11 November Imo
governorship polls, there may be voters apa-
thy as most eligible voters might not want to
risk their skins to come to cast their ballots for
their preferred candidate as a result of the spate
of violence across the state. The violence is
more noticeable in parts of Orlu and Okigwe senatorial zones which have continued to wit-
nessed unmitigated violent attacks by gunmen
masquerading as members of the Indigenous
People of Biafra (IPOB)and its affiliates, the
Eastern Security Network ( ESN).
In the last few weeks, the state has witnessed
more indiscriminate attacks by gunmen. Even
both security agencies and politicians have
not been spared. Recently, eight members of
a joint security taskforce on patrol in Umualu-
maku and Orieagu axis in Ehime Mbano coun-
cil area were attacked and killed by gunmen,
who proceeded to set their corpses ablaze.
During the Presidential and National As-
sembly polls held in February 25, Orsu Lo-
cal Government Area recorded less that 6,000
votes, as most residents have already fled their
communities, a consequence of the unrelent-
ing activities of gunmen who kill at will. And
those who had remained in their communities,
especially the elderly, could not vote for fear of
becoming victims of the “unknown gunmen.”
Also, those who had earlier registered to vote
in the 2023 polls could not do so as they aban-
doned their permanent voters cards with the
Independent National Electoral Commission
(INEC). The situation has not changed.
Similarly, it would require heavy deploy-
ment of security agents to assure the residents
of Ejemekuru, Awa, Agwa, Izombe, Orsu
Obodo communities in Oguta Local Govern-
ment Area because of the continuous violence
in the axis, as most police infrastructure in
those areas have been destroyed by gunmen.
These areas have remained a vortex of vio-
lence as rival gunmen have continued to make
these communities unsafe. There is the contin-
uous burning of the houses of perceived sup-
porters of the current administration and their
opponents. Two weeks ago, gunmen killed
three police officers in Ejemekuru community
which resulted in residents fleeing the com-
munity following reprisals by the operatives
of Imo State Police Command. The precari-
ous situation in Awo- Omama in Oru East Lo-
cal Government Area, Atta in Njaba, parts of
Orlu Local Government Area may affect the
forthcoming Imo governorship polls as most
residents have relocated to Owerri, the state
capital. The story is not different in Okigwe
senatorial zone, as parts of Onuimo, Obowo,
Okigwe Local Government Area in the Okig-
we zone have been taken over by gunmen. It
would be recall that the State Houses of As-
sembly election was marred by violence in
these areas forcing most eligible voters to flee .
However, most of the Local Government
Areas in Owerri Senatorial Zone are relatively
calm after the 2021 prison break which had
caused an upsurge of violence especially in
the Ogbaku, Nwaoriebu communities in the
Mbaitoli Local Government area and parts of
Orji, Amakaohia, Irete communities in Owerri
North Local Government Area of the state.