By Chukwudi Nweje
The assurance given by President of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Omar Touray, in Abuja on Friday that ECOWAS has not declared war on Niger Republic is reassuring.
Touray, who spoke while addressing journalists in Abuja said the scales of sanctions had been activated, including legitimate force, even as he noted that ECOWAS is hopeful that all diplomatic efforts will yield positive action.
Touray’s statement comes as ECOWAS leaders continue to explore peaceful resolution to the political crisis in Niger following the Gen Abdourahamane Omar Tchiani military coup that ousted the democratic government of President Mohamed Bazoum.
The assurances also came at a time the ultimatum ECOWAS gave the junta to restore President Bazoum to power had long expired and ECOWAS ordered the deployment and activation of a standby force in case all efforts at diplomacy fails.
Several Nigerians have urged Tinubu, who is Chairman of the Authority of Heads of State and Government of ECOWAS to avoid military action against Niger as such would have a backlash on Nigeria.
Some local and international obverses as well as analysts are watching to see how President Bola Tinubu, will handle the situation which they see as a litmus test for him as a regional leader.
Tinubu was elected chairman of the ECOWAS Heads of State and Government organ on July 9 at the 63rd ordinary session in Bissau, the Republic of Guinea-Bissau while the military coup in Niger occurred on July 26, and analysts say his ability to diffuse the crisis and how he does it will define the kind of leader he is.
One of the fundamental principles in Article 4 (j)the Declaration Political Principles of the Revised ECOWAS treaty adopted in Abuja on 6 July 1991 is the regional body’s commitment to “promotion and consolidation of a democratic system of governance in each member state.”
All eyes are therefore on Tinubu, whose election victory in the February 25, 2023 presidential election is being contested in court.
Nevertheless, many Nigerians oppose the use of military force in resolving the political crisis in Niger Republic.
Exploring peaceful resolution
The ECOWAS leaders opened a door for peaceful resolution of the political crisis since the first day of the coup.
A peace delegation led by former Nigeria Head of State, Gen Abdulsalami Abubakar and the Sultan of Sokoto, Alhaji Saad Abubakar had visited Niger in the early days of the coup but were denied access into the city. The coup leaders also did not see the delegation from the United Nations (UN), and the African Union (AU).
Gen Tchiani later apologised and stated that they were angry at ECOWAS for not listening to their own side of the story before issuing an ultimatum.
Although the one-week ultimatum to the military junta to restore the democratically elected government to power expired on August 6, the search for a peaceful resolution has continued.
President Tinubu approved the return of a delegation of Islamic leaders (Ulama) to Niger Republic for a second round of dialogue with the coup leaders.
Implementing the ECOWAS protocol
Presidential candidate of the Social democratic Party (SDP) in the 2023 election, Prince Adewole Adebayo, said the objective of ECOWAS is to enforce and protect a treaty willingly entered into by Niger Republic.
He noted that a war in Niger would trigger a refugee crisis in Nigeria as majority of Nigeriens live less than 100 kilometres to the Nigerian border.
He also said that Nigeria and Niger are practically one people and share lingual, cultural and religious homogeneity, and as such, Nigeria fighting a war in Niger would be tantamount to a war between brothers.
He said, “ECOWAS is not beating the drums of war; what ECOWAS is doing in Niger is what Niger signed up to. Niger signed to a protocol that it will only change its government democratically and not by force.
“Niger has implemented this protocol before. Niger Republic went with ECOWAS to remove Yaya Jami in the Gambia, Niger went to Sierra Lone, Niger went to Liberia, Niger went to Cote d’Ivoire to support the use of force to remove Laurent Gbagbo and install Alassane Quattara. The same Niger joined in the condemnation of Mali and Burkina Faso and Guinea when they had the coup in their respective countries. So we need to understand that ECOWAS cannot give a round of applause to someone who is in violation of the ECOWAS treaty and protocol and ECOWAS cannot be indifferent either.
“ECOWAS is engaging with the military junta as well as the constitutional government that was deposed and ECOWAS has opened some humanitarian corridors, that is why Niger Republic has not collapsed. The ultimatum given to the military junta to restore democracy has passed but ECOWAS is still engaging them in peace talks, that is diplomacy,” Prince Adebayo said.
A breach of ECOWAS protocol?
An International Civil Group consisting of Egalitarian Mission for Africa (EMA), former Director General of the Nigerian Institute of the Internal Affairs (NIIA), Professor Bola Akinterinwa and a lawyer, Hamza Nuhu Dantani, among others feel that a military action in Niger would amount to a breach of ECOWAS protocol that forbids armed conflict against member countries.
The group which dragged President Tínubu before the ECOWAS Court of Justice, prayed the court to restrain any form of military action against Niger Republic.
The suit marked ECW/CCJ/APP/3/23, instituted by Dr Oluwakayode Ajulo stressed that ECOWAS treaties prohibit aggression among member states and that a military action or invasion will run foul of the obligations in the ECOWAS treaties and therefore amount to illegality, even as such military action would lead to a breach of fundamental rights to life, right to dignity of human persons and liberty to life of the hundreds of thousands of people that would be rendered refugees. He however described the coup as most unfortunate.
No to military action
The Northern Elders Forum (NEF) also opposes the use of military action in Niger.
Dr Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, spokesman of the forum warned that any resort to the use of force would be counter-productive and have negative effects both in the country and in the region.
Baba-Ahmed urged ECOWAS to negotiate with the junta in Niger and not resort to threats, warning that a military intervention would destabilize the region.
In a tweet, he wrote,
“This is a good time for ECOWAS to take a step back and assess the Niger Republic situation without threats and bravado.
“There is still room for some negotiations, but ECOWAS must drive the process. Nigeria in particular must use its clout to calm nerves and lead responsibly.
“Who is going to guarantee a ‘well executed military intervention’? Nigerians are against any military action.
“This will further destabilize the region. ECOWAS without Nigeria is a few countries who will not set foot in Niger. Negotiations are the best.”
Convener of NEF, Ango Abdullahi, also expressed concern on the use of force to restore constitutional order in Niger Republic and noted that it was unlikely to yield positive results.
“We urge President Tinubu to recognise this unique moment in history and conduct himself in a manner that records his role as defining statesmanship. We appeal to the people of Nigeria and Niger, as well as our leaders, to resist any attempt to poison our centuries of relationship,”Abdullahi said.
Nigeria first
The Middle Belt Forum (MBF) however said the priority of Tinubu should be to fix Nigeria first before venturing into the neighbouring countries.
National Publicity Secretary of the Forum, Dr Isuwa Dogo in a statement charged Tinubu to rather than threatening military action against Niger Republic, focus his energy on addressing “the monsters of insecurity shredding Nigeria, including addressing the harsh economic sufferings unleashed on the masses of the country following the withdrawal of fuel subsidy.”
The statement said, “We call on President Bola Tinubu to focus attention on addressing the monsters of insecurity shredding our nation, including addressing the harsh economic sufferings unleashed on the masses, following the withdrawal of fuel subsidies that have thrown millions of Nigerian citizens into dungeons of hopelessness and despair.”
Dogo added that caution and statesmanship should be employed in dealing with the insurrection in the Niger Republic because of the cultural, social, and religious affinity between the Niger Republic and Nigerian states that share borders with it.
He further said, “Understanding the dynamics and intricate relationship between the Niger Republic and Nigerian states that share borders should serve as lessons in avoiding any form of warfare. With the coup in Niger Republic attracting sympathy from Nigerien masses over the sacking of the democratically elected leadership, caution should be exercised.
“As it stands, Nigeria should never allow itself to plunge into an avoidable war.”
He urged African leaders to enthrone good governance in their respective countries as such is the best way to discourage coups.
“Leadership is founded on moral high ground. The best medicine against coups is the enthronement of justice and equity for all. For ambitious military officers to be discouraged from staging coups, democracy must be cleansed of rogue leaders thrown up by flawed electoral processes.
“The lesson of the coup should not be lost on leaders who deployed underhand dealings to assume the mantle of leadership through compromising the electoral process,” he said.
Niger Republic, African interest
A civil society group, under the auspices of the National Observatory, urged ECOWAS leaders to give priority attention to the interests of Nigeriens, the sub region and Africa in whatever action they take.
The group’s President, Debo Adeniran said that the contending issues in the coup, which has attracted the attention of France and other Western powers revolve around the control of Niger’s natural resources.
He urged the ECOWAS leaders not to lose sight of the freedom of the people of Niger Republic and the manacles of foreign powers’ exploitation of the natural resources in the country and domination of African people as they seek solution to the crisis.
He said, “The tragedy of the emerging scenarios is that the interests of Africa and its peoples are not given true and thorough interrogations in finding panacea to the dooming sceptre of military interregnums in the continent. The contending concerns revolve round the questions of sovereignty, democracy, control of natural resources and power play by foreign interests.
“The Western Power bloc, queuing behind France is routing for Tchiani and his comrades in arms to go back to the barracks and restore democratic government of Bazoum, without ruling out the option of enforcement of their position by military options.”
Last line
As a final note of warning, Prince Adebayo warned against allowing the congregation of foreign military powers in the sub-region, which he described as an affront to a regional power like Nigeria.
He said, “The idea that Russian mercenaries will leave the Caucasus region and come to the Sahel, West Africa, is an affront to a regional power like Nigeria. There is no way we can tolerate that, there is no friendship that we can have in Russia where you can come to my neighbourhood and be setting governments on fire. That’s not friendship. Nobody who is capable of self-governance is going to allow a global power to come to his region and start to set up satellites. We cannot wait until the coup gets to Abuja before we know that their intentions are not in our interest.
“If these coup plotters know the implications of bringing Wagners and Eastern troops into their country, where they already have the French and American troops , they cannot be acting in the best interests of Niger, or the sub-region.”
I think at the level of regional diplomacy, ECOWAS is speaking the way Nigeria is speaking and African Union (AU) is speaking the way ECOWAS is speaking.”z