President Barack Obama said, democracy will win if we fight for it. Benjamin Franklin, one of the founding fathers of American democracy, arose from a meeting with his colleagues, where they deliberated on the preferable system of government for America, and was questioned by a woman outside the meeting to reveal to America their choice. He quipped, we have a republic, if you can keep it. Eternal vigilance is the price to pay for democracy, certainly not a fall. Democracy is worth fighting for, it’s not worth falling for. The reason democracy is failing in Africa is that the people who ought to be the fighters for democracy, are busy falling head over heels for the crumbs that fall off from the table of these half baked, incompetent and corrupt leaders. So nauseating is the level of sychophancy that even the leaders now make a joke when they fall that they were doing obeisance to democracy.
The best obeisance anybody will do for democracy is ensuring the security and welfare of the people. Encouraging the participation of the people in their government. These are constitutional mandates on any government. See Section 14(2)(b)(c) of the 1999 Constitution. Listening to the speech of the President on democracy day, these elements were lacking, while the main item in the event was an express demonstration of State capture. The only exceptional thing that was performed on that day, was the unveiling of the tallest and largest portrait on canvas of the President himself. The poorest government in history is erecting the most costly largest picture of the head of government in Eagle’s Square, just to demonstrate that he has captured the state. No military leader in Nigeria has ever done that. As terrible as military regime is, this regime is really making the people believe that after all, there may be no difference between it and military regime.
I was shaken to my bones when I read some philosophical connotation of the events of June 12 democracy day celebration on the internet which read, “Hmmmmmmm!! The gods must be crazy to have fallen down a whole President Tinubu right before his retinue of guards. Could this be the symbol of fallen Democracy? How would a man whose statue was just unveiled as the highest in the world kiss the floor while his statue is standing?”. People like us, who do not wish or pray for military intervention, or even violent revolution, because we understand the unintended or collateral damages that may accompany such interventions are even pleading with this government to sit up and listen to the people to understand their needs and channel the resources of government for their welfare. People are desperately hungry and angry and this government is running out of time to provide solution.
The most unfortunate statement in the presidential broadcast was that the President was going to send the agreed amount to the National Assembly to be adopted as the law guiding the minimum wage the government wishes to pay to the Nigerian workers. The President that unveiled his largest portrait, was no longer bold enough to unveil the minimum wage he intends to pay to the workers. First and foremost, there was no agreement between the labour unions and the government. The labour unions submitted the sum of N250,000 as their suggested minimum wage, while the government submitted the sum of N62,000 as minimum wage. In terms of its equivalent in naira, it’s only a failed state, at war, like the Sudan, that pays its citizens amounts lower than the dollar equivalent to N62,000. Nigeria is gradually becoming the poorest nation on earth, while its leaders are the richest in the world. It’s not surprising a notable Nigerian Politician submitted that wherever the political leaders are richer than the business men, such leaders will be manufacturing poverty.
Another agonising showdown is brewing between labour unions and government. Certainly, it appears as if government will unilaterally submit an amount to the National Assembly as the negotiated agreed minimum wage which will not significantly change from their enforced N62,000. Labour will come out with fury to resist this. They will be supported nationwide by frustrated, unemployed, idle youths, who are almost loosing interest in life and will be desiring to set themselves up for martyrdom because they can no longer find meaning under the economic jackboot of this regime. Government will want to prove that it’s a tough one and resist the resistance by unleashing the security agencies against the workers and protesters. They have already started laying the foundation by insinuating that labour unions committed treason by switching off the national grid. They will arrest some of the labour leaders and may even unintentionally hurt or kill some protesters. This will enrage the sympathy of the people and even the security agencies who may be on the side of the people in their hearts and on the side of government with their body. Division will arise between them which may lead to the security forces fighting against each other. Some fighting to protect the government, while others fighting to protect the people. This may lead to anarchy, which may lead to an unintended revolution which nobody can dictate how it will end.
Nigeria has witnessed the downfall of democracy three times. This is why we are in the Fourth Republic. The first one was caused by electoral violence occasioned by the brutal rigging of elections in the South-West and allegations of corruption. The second was truncated by exactly the same reason – electoral violence in the South-West, and coupled with the allegations of corruption. The third republic was toppled for no reason at all. The winner that emerged from a free, fair, credible, and verifiable open ballot, option A4 election, MKO Abiola, was rejected by the same military government that organised the election for no reason at all. They didn’t stop at that, they arrested him for declaring himself President and detained him until he died. It is in commemoration of that inexplicable injustice meted out on him that June 12 eventually became a public holiday to celebrate democracy. Such a day ought to be a sober reminder that someone paid the supreme price to totally unmask the dangers of military dictatorship. It’s disheartening that a leader chose such a day for self aggrandizement to unveil the guiness book of record portrait of himself standing.
The winner of the June 12 presidential election won his opponent in his own home state of Kano, just as the present leader was defeated in his own home state of Lagos. Abiola won some states in all the Geo-Political Zones in Nigeria, unlike the present government. Abiola’s mantra was war against poverty, unlike this present government which is positively in favour of poverty by its policies. Abiola was not vindictive, and showed it by making Babagana Kingibe his running mate, after Kingibe somewhat betrayed him by running against him in the presidential primary of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), his party, even while Kingibe was supposed to be the National Chairman of the same party that ought to be a referee for all the contestants. Despite Kingibe’s connections within the SDP as National Chairman, Abiola still won him in the presidential primary election. This didn’t stop Abiola from choosing him as his Vice Presidential candidate immediately Abiola discovered, after widespread consultation, that he was the preferred Vice Presidential candidate of his party. He titled his campaign “Hope 93”.
The incumbent that is trying to mimic hope 93 in 2023 is the exact opposite of Abiola. Prof Yemi Osinbajo contested the president with him and was dubbed a betrayal. Most of the people that contested with him are certified political enemies. Whether your name is Amaechi, Onu or lawan. Abiola keeps promises and is reasonably transparent and generous to everyone including the people that do not like him or the religion that is not his own. These differences are the cause of Abiola’s victory in his opponents home state and the defeat in the home state of this incumbent. Abiola will be reeling in his grave that the poor Nigerians he wanted to fight for and destroy poverty in their lives are now the poorest in the world. That an incumbent who was carrying his bag then preferred to pay N6b to build car park for the rich, pay N21b and N20b to build houses for his Vice and Chief of Staff respectively, to paying a reasonable wage to the poorest of workers. He will be crying in the grave to learn that his hope agenda has been turned to renewed hopelessness because bag of rice has skyrocketed to almost N89,000, tomato, egg, bread, fuel, etc have become unaffordable. Journalists are being arrested and detained more than the constitutionally allowed periods without trials. Labour union protesters are dubbed treasonable felons because the national grid that had collapsed more than 100 times under the incompetent APC government from 2015, was allowed to collapse during their protest.
Whoever thinks that the physical fall of Tinubu is not symbolic of anything sinister has not read Julius Caesar whose wife warned that when beggars die there are no comets seen but heavens blaze forth the passing of princes. After Julius Caesar voluntarily consulted the soothsayers as natural signs of impending disaster were showing, and was still warned not to step out during the ides of March, because among the animals brought for the sacrifice, was found one that had no heart in it, he still denigrated the gods and ventured out and never returned. This government should act as people that have heart and conscience, and avert the looming anarchy that will wipe out all politicians without a heart, and pay the workers reasonable wage. If someone tells me that the ghost of the fallen hero pushed down Tinubu to protest the unveiling of the largest self portrait of Tinubu in the midst of abject poverty of the people whom he fought and died for, I will probably answer that only God and time can tell.