Ordinarily, a controversial and divisive political figure like Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai should not have been nominated for the position of a minister by the president of an ethno-religiously plural country such as Nigeria under normal circumstances. And when such a nomination is made, it should sure as death that it will be rejected by the legislative arm of government. This is not because of his incompetence or ineptitude as El-Rufai is one of Nigeria’s most accomplished public servants with a reputation for academic brilliance, organizational skills and result oriented administrative acumen. As Director General of the Bureau for Public Enterprise, El-Rufai, a neo-liberal economics conservative, drove with uncommon passion and zeal the process of transferring the means of production from public to private entities through the mass privatization of Public Enterprises between 1999 and 2003 under the Olusegun Obasanjo administration.
As minister of the Federal Capital Territory between 2003 and 2007, El-Rufai who was assigned by President Obasanjo the task of restoring the Abuja city master plan after many years of violation, took a plunge into this ocean of responsibility and swam ashore to safety after navigating through its thorny labyrinths. After 4 years as minister of FCT, El-Rufai was adjudged by friends and foes as having performed superlatively as the Abuja master was not only restored, the city was cleaned up, expanded and secured to the extent that by 2006 [three years later], Nigeria celebrated the 30th anniversary of the creation of its new capital with pride, pomp and pageantry as one of the most beautiful and secured capital cities in Africa. El-Rufai’s impressive performance as a public distinguished him as one the emerging leaders of Nigeria in general and northern Nigeria in particular.
However, this phenomenal success was without its downsides as El-Rufai was accused of high handedness, impunity and conflict of personal and public interests in his administration of the FCT especially in matters of land revocation and allocation to the extent that his tenure was a subject of parliamentary probe by the National Assembly. He will go into self-imposed exile under the Umar Musa Yar’Adua administration, which he considered hostile and vindictive of him for reason that remains unclear many years after. But El-Rufai fought back from his base in exile by exposing the corrupt under-belly of the Yara’Adua Administration and labelling the members of his inner cycle a ‘’cabal’’ that was feasting of the common patrimony of Nigeria. And as no subsequent minister of FCT after him recorded his level of achievements in office, El-Rufai increasingly became a good example of what a minister of FCT should be.
El-Rufai’s reputation as a competent and high performing public in a country that earnest yearns for good and effective leadership added a solid political to Nigeria’s former FCT minister, making one of the most sought after politician in Nigeria on the eve of the 2015 general elections. As a leading member of the newly formed opposition All Progressives Congress [APC] from Muhammadu Buhari’s, CPC faction, El-Rufai was the gubernatorial candidate of the party of northern Nigerian state of Kaduna going into 2015 general elections. While Buhari emerged victorious as president, El-Rufai was similarly elected governor of his home state of Kaduna. And a new El-Rufai began to unravel; one that was either unknown or simply escaped public notice under the pan-Nigerian nationalist leadership of President Olusegun Obasanjo.
While he retained his famous developmental streak and administrative acumen as governor of Kaduna state, a new El-Rufai was to emerge that came across as an ethno-religious sectionalist who championed the political and economic domination of Kaduna state by his Hausa/Fulani ethnic and Muslim religious section of the state. His open declaration to the effect that the murderous activities of killer Fulani herdsmen in predominantly non Hausa/Fulani communities in the southern parts of Kaduna state were reprisal attacks and that he has reached out to his ‘kinsmen’’ to stop the killing since one of them is now in charge in the state. This claim of pandering to the basic ethnic sentiments of the killers of his people sent shock waves across the country and set the people of southern Kaduna on edge of what is to come.
With southern Kaduna being a strong hold of then ruling but now opposition Peoples Democratic Party, El-Rufai deployed his brilliance into the mastery of the art of ethnic and religious identity politics through the elevation of his Muslim Hausa/Fulani section of the state in the scheme of things while marginalizing the predominantly Christian peoples of southern Kaduna. El-Rufai will aggravate this situation, when going into the 2019 gubernatorial he picked a Muslim running mate from southern Kaduna in clear violation of the balance of power between the Muslim and Christian sections of the state, which has sustained the fragile peace in Kaduna since 1999 and won. In addition to the having a Muslim/ Muslim governorate in El-Rufai’s Kaduna, the speaker of the House of Assembly, the secretary to the state government, the chief of staff and two ministers in the cabinet of President Buhari from the state where all Muslims. This total Muslim domination of Kaduna, a state with an important minority population of Christians alienated many Nigerians but endeared El-Rufai to the people and leadership of conservation Muslim north and cementing his place in Nigeria’s largest democratic demography as the heir apparent to President Buhari and the most influential political leader in northern Nigeria after.
El-Rufai will use this influence both within and outside the ruling APC to mobilize support for the emergence of Ahmed Bola Tinubu, a Muslim from southern Nigeria as president of Nigeria and Kashim Shettima, a Muslim from northern Nigeria as his vice. While El-Rufai was commended in spite of himself for supporting a shift of presidential power to the south from the north after eight years of Buhari presidency, it soon emerged that he may have only prioritised a Muslim domination of Nigeria as he did in Kaduna through his own admission. It is against this background that El-Rufai was believed to have been rejected by the National assembly, relying on a security report from Directorate of State Services.
But Nigeria is neither a normal country nor is the times ordinary in the largest democracy in Africa. The political masters of Nigeria appear to have perfected the art of state capture as seen in the list of ministerial nominees by President Tinubu. The list includes members of the ruling establishment in Nigeria, some of who have been indicted by anti-corruption agencies for mismanagement and diversion of public funds under their watch. And nothing qualifies these individuals that should disqualify El-Rufai as it is essentially a compensation list for those who contributed to the victory of President Tinubu at the polls. This is why many are want to think that President Tinubu may have drawn El-Rufai, his former foe turned friend closer in order to give him a kiss of death.
While El-Rufai may have been a divisive and controversial political figure, who appears to harbour animosity towards Nigeria’s Christian half of its population, President Tinubu will have to manage his foe turned friend in order to prevent him from turning a foe once again. The very reasons El-Rufai is being rejected are the same reasons that lead to his victory in the 2023 presidential election as the former of Kaduna state deployed his armada of identity politics arsenal to squeeze out votes in the Muslim north for Tinubu against a fellow Atiku Abubakar, a fellow Hausa Fulani northern Muslim in the last presidential election. An El-Rufai is a friend to keep and an enemy to prevent. And an idle El-Rufai may become an opposition workshop going into the 2027 presidential election.