From Femi Folaranmi, Yenagoa
The emergence of Chief Timipre Sylva as the governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) has introduced an interesting dimension to the Bayelsa State governorship election billed for November 11, 2023.
Though other candidates including the Labour Party( LP’s) candidate, Mr Udengs Eradiri are likely to add colour to campaigns and the governorship contest, Sylva remains the most formidable opposition candidate set to confront the Peoples Democratic Party( PDP).
Sylva, an immediate past Minister of State for Petroleum and former governor of the state is an old political war horse ousted from power in 2012 and who has not hidden his desire to serve out his remaining one term.
While in a 2021 interview with a Yenagoa-based radio station, Sylva had declared that the “chapter” of him running for governor has closed and that the party would be shopping for a credible candidate, sources said his entrance and eventual victory at the governorship primaries highlight a strong desire of the APC to win the state. The sources insisted that the party hierarchy at the national level drafted Sylva into the race because of his experience and doggedness.
Sylva’s obstacle however is a calm and strategic politician, Governor Douye Diri, who is not just an incumbent but one who has sustained the winning structure of the PDP and wormed his way into the heart of Bayelsans with modest performance.
In 2015 when the PDP lost the centre, many thought it was the political end of the party in the state prompting many to jump ship to the APC. However, the party under the leadership of the then governor now Senator, Henry Seriake Dickson demonstrated resilience and proved bookmakers wrong by winning in seven local governments against the one won by the APC.
Also in 2019, even when the APC won the governorship election and many PDP members were already thinking of a gloomy future, a ‘miracle’ from the Supreme Court gifted the state back to PDP. This political trajectory has given rise to a growing conviction that the 2023 governorship election would be determined by factors that had defined the existence of the two rival political parties and forces behind the two candidates.
Power of incumbency
The PDP government led by Diri is in charge of the state. It has a formidable structure which the party leveraged upon in the just concluded 2023 general elections. Furthermore, the PDP administration is in a pole position to dish out political patronage which in a clime like Bayelsa where politics is the mainstay is very crucial. Many are willing to take up political appointments to survive the harsh economic conditions, and there is no limit to the political patronage the PDP can offer.
While government officials insist that the N200 million monthly empowerment programme for women and youths across the 105 wards have no political undertone, investigations revealed that the gesture has endeared many Bayelsans to the Diri’s administration. The target segment of the society sees the programme as evidence of a government that really cares about the people. Aside, the big ticket road projects billed to link the hinterlands to Yenagoa commenced by Dickson and which has been continued with so much enthusiasm by Diri is a plus to the power of incumbency. The people see his developmental strides as encouraging and would want to see a continuation by the same administration from 2024.
Sources said many appointments are being planned to get more politically conscious Bayelsans to the Diri’s side. The appointment, findings revealed include the conduct of the local government polls. Plans have reached an advanced stage for its conduct with loyal PDP members expected to emerge as candidates and reinforce the dominance of the party in Bayelsa. The calculation of strategists around Diri according to political observers is that with the conduct of the local government elections, the PDP would be able to cement the grassroots support for the party in the governorship election.
Federal Might
The term ‘Federal might’ is known in Nigeria’s political lexicon to mean use of underhand tactics by the party at the centre to influence the outcome of elections across the country using officials of the Independent National Electoral Commission(INEC) and security agencies including the military to have its way.
During the PDP years, former Presidents Olusegun Obasanjo, Umaru Yar Adua and Goodluck Jonathan were accused of deploying federal might in varying ways.
Opposition elements during the off-season governorship elections conducted during the tenure of Yar’ Adua and Jonathan screamed blue murder against the ruling party using Federal Might to influence the outcome.
However in 2015, PDP found itself in the opposition at the centre after the defeat of Jonathan and it was its turn to accuse the APC of deploying the federal might. At the centre of the 2015 governorship election in Bayelsa was Dickson and Sylva. The former made headlines when he rallied Bayelsans to demystify the Federal might. The PDP made a song and dance of its victory taunting the APC.
Ahead of the November governorship election, PDP has served notice that it was aware of alleged plans to use the Federal Might, declaring that it is ready to confront the APC.
Speaking shortly after his election as the candidate of the party, Diri said the opposition should allow Bayelsans to vote instead of plotting to take the governorship by force.
“We are ready waiting for whoever would emerge from the opposition. Like I keep saying we should not allow anti-democratic people rather than work on the foundation we have already laid would destroy that function. We can no longer depend on militancy; we can no longer depend on rigging of elections. We have all the information, most of it informally that when they emerge from the opposition that they would take the governorship by force. We are in a democracy, people should be allowed to vote. “
Also speaking recently at a solidarity rally staged by youths, Diri said the opposition depends on Federal Might while the PDP looks up to God.
“They are already boasting that they have money, they are boasting that they have federal might, that they will defeat us. But Like I always say, some depend on their Chariots and Horses but we depend on God. They are brandishing their money, might and connection which they said they will use to manipulate the election. But there is nothing beyond God. The same God that won the election for us in 2019 is not dead. But he is still God,” he said.
The Tinubu factor
Since 2003, the President-elect, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu through his Alliance for Democracy (AD) has had his eyes on the politics of Bayelsa. He came close in 2007/2008 when his political baby, the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) through his governorship candidate, Ebitimi Amgbare forced the governorship election to be nullified. Incidentally, Sylva was the one that had to face the Tinubu political machinery in the 2008 rerun election which he won albeit after sweating.
Chairman of Thisday Editorial Board, Mr Olusegun Adeniyi had recently in his column narrated how then Vice- President, Goodluck Jonathan had to meet Tinubu before the 2008 rerun election to ask him what was his interest in Bayelsa election to which Tinubu replied “ I want my foothold in the South- South.”
Though Cross River is now an APC state courtesy of the defection of Governor Ben Ayade, political analysts believe the dream to make Bayelsa APC state is still alive. By the time the election would hold, barring any unforeseen circumstances, Tinubu would have spent five months in office as President and would be in a position to deploy all available resources to ensure his party wins the elections being the first set of elections under him.
It is believed that the manner of Sylva’s emergence as governorship candidate with the APC national leadership in tacit support of his ambition is a strong indication that Tinubu is in the know of Sylva’s ambition. As a politician with eyes on the ball, if Tinubu deploys his legendary strategic planning and resourcefulness behind Sylva, he would definitely give PDP a run for its money.
Record of performance
The performance of Diri and Sylva in office will definitely play a key role in the emergence of the next governor of the state. While Diri would be judged by his record since he assumed office, Sylva would be judged by his time in office as governor between 2007/2012 and as Minister of State, Petroleum between 2019 and 2023.
On Diri’s performance at a recent solidarity walk in support of Diri’s re-election bid, thousands of Bayelsa youths including former youth leaders of APC that have defected to the PDP commended the governor for his leadership.
The Special Adviser to the Bayelsa Governor on Political Matters, High Chief Collins Cocodia said the gathering of the youths of the state and the solidarity walk was a deliberate show of appreciation to Diri for all the good works he has done.
“They are here with the belief that you have done a marvelous job. The walk is to say thank you for a job well done in the last three years. They are of the belief that one good turn deserves another. This is for the good things you have done in every sector of the state.”
A former prominent APC youth leader who heads the New Media team of the party, Mr Gifted Natus, announced their decision to dump the APC and Chief Timipre Sylva for the PDP.
According to him, there is no hope for the Bayelsa youths under APC and Chief Timipre Sylva adding that Diri has taken over the state
“When they heard that we have decided to dump them and seek prosperity, they started offering us jobs at the Tantita security surveillance company and the NDDC.
“We decided to join Governor Diri’s Prosperity Family because in the last three years under his watch, Bayelsa State has been politically stable and peaceful. The leadership of our former party dampened our hopes and aspirations due to lack of direction and failed promises.
“We can no longer remain in a sinking ship. We want to assure the governor that his second term bid was done and dusted. We would go to the grassroots to preach the prosperity agenda to those still lost in other parties.
“We are here in our numbers to join the Prosperity Government because of the exemplary leadership style of the Miracle Governor, his peaceful disposition and because he is spreading prosperity across the eight local government areas of our dear state. Since the governor came into power, we have witnessed peace and political stability in the state. In the APC, it has been one failed promise after another. We cannot remain under a leadership that lacks direction. Come November 11, your re-election for a second term is a reality. From here, we are heading to the communities to preach the gospel of prosperity to others.”
Prince Okeneme from Ogbia Local Government Area of the state said the decision to support continuity of the Diri administration was based on the existing peace in the state.
“If only for the peace we enjoy, we will vote for Gov. Douye Diri. He has done more than we expected. We now live in peace. Even in the education and health sector, he has shown capacity and saved many Bayelsans.”
The deputy governor, Senator Lawrence Ewhrudjakpo who during the rally by Bayelsa youths sang songs to celebrate the rise of PDP and the fall of APC threw jabs at Sylva recalling the human rights abuse Bayelsans were subjected to through the operations of the Bayelsa Security outfit, Operation Famu- Tangbe( Kill and throw away). He said Bayelsans are not ready to witness such again.
According to him, Bayelsans are satisfied with Diri’s performance and do not need Sylva who had suffered defeat before in the hands of PDP.
“Have we not defeated him before? We are going to defeat him again. APC is falling to rise no more. We pity them. PDP is rising, to fall no more. “
Supporters of Sylva have come to his defence listing his developmental strides including putting an end to militancy, construction of 50 internal roads, the banquet hall, Peace Park, steady power supply and booming local economy as achievements during his tenure .
An APC sympathiser, John Okhai said the strides of Sylva as governor were immeasurable. According to him, one of the legacies of Sylva was Operation Famu- Tangbe which helped to eradicate deadly cult/gang wars in Bayelsa State.
He argued that those attributing the excesses of the Police Officers to Sylva could not substantiate their allegations beyond the campaign of calumny being mounted against Sylva.
“It is important to state that the Operatives of Famu Tangbe were drawn from the Nigerian Police, they weren’t recruited by the Sylva led administration and given marching orders to kill Bayelsans as some mischievous persons would have us believe.”
Also projects in Bayelsa like the Bayelsa Fertilizer company, Atlantic Refinery the COVID-19 special hospital under construction at Igbogene, the Pipe Manufacturing Plant at Polaku, Gas Park at Emeyal, Oloibiri Oil museum being executed through the Nigeria Content Development Monitoring Board( NCDMB) were attributed to the influence of Sylva as Minister.
Political analysts insist that the pendulum where the election would swing would become clearer in the next few months as both parties began the execution of their plans to claim the seat.