THE caption of this article is inspired by Monica’s rhetorical question: Which year is good for the poor? Monica, my grandfather’s wife, usually asked this question whenever those around her expressed much optimism about any approaching new year. Her question was probably inspired by the fact that she had seen many years of failed promises by government. To her, all the years would be the same for the poor irrespective of promises by government or expectation by the people that all will be well. As a young person then full of idealism about my country, I could not grasp the philosophy in Monica’s thinking. But many years after her death, the truism of her assertion has dawned on me strikingly. Drawing, therefore, from Monica’s philosophical question, I ask my readers in this article: Will 2017 be good for the poor? I used ‘the poor’ consciously. I used the term, ‘the poor,’ to represent the 70 per cent of Nigerians whom the United Nations said feed on less than $1.25 US dollar per day. When this statistics came out, the exchange rate was not up to N165 to $1. With the current exchange rate of about N490 to $1, the situation of the poor in Nigeria is better imagined than described. I use the parallel market rate because it is more realistic. That is the rate that is available to majority of Nigerians. Only those in government, some businesses and religious groups enjoy the official rate. Therefore, it is incontestable that the current exchange rate has made nonsense of the national minimum wage of N18,000 per month. It has also made nonsense of the wages of Nigerian workers, both public and private. Their hitherto take home wage has been rendered a nullity. It can no longer take them home. And things will be worse if the exchange rate goes beyond N500 to the $1. Pray hard that that it does not get to N1000 to $1. If it gets there, it will increase the suffering of the people and anarchy may set in. But, may it not get there. The leadership of Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) is calling for a new minimum wage of N50,000 because of the rising exchange rate. Even the churches are feeling the pangs of the economic recession with dwindling offerings and donations for worthwhile causes. For them too, 2016 was not a good year economically speaking. Will this year be markedly different from 2016? Those in government are optimistic that things will be better in the new year. With a budget estimate of N7.30 trillion for 2017, the APC-led Federal Government is hoping that it will make life better for Nigerians in the new year. Tagged “Budget of Recovery and Growth,” government believes that the budget will get Nigeria out of recession. Last year was the worst year for Nigerians. The economy was literally battered, businesses were forced to close down and people’s purchasing power was greatly reduced. The middle class was pauperized while the poor became poorer. Many Nigerians lost their jobs due to downsizing by companies. The exchange rate was among the highest in Nigerian history with $1 exchange for N490. Many states could not pay their workers’ salaries and pensioners could not be paid their pensions. Even some companies could not pay their workers’ salaries with rising cost of production and poor sales. Only a few companies were paying workers’ salaries regularly. Despite government’s optimism that it will get the economy out of the woods this year, many Nigerians are pessimistic. Their pessimism stems from the fact that inflation will eat up the huge budget. The rising exchange rate will also not be friendly to the budget. Another worry is that governments in Nigeria hardly implement the budget fully. Our national and state budgets suffer much from implementation fatigue and policy somersaults. Some critics of the 2017 budget point out some of its inherent incongruencies. They have asked pointedly: How can a budget which earmarks N2.96 billion for honorarium and allowances for presidency, agencies and parastatals aid recovery and growth? The votes for kitchen utensils, food and generators for the presidency are some of the contradictions of the budget as well as the votes for travels and other outrageous votes that ought to have been scaled down in view of the prevailing harsh economy. Nigerians are not happy that the government that promised them change and goodies has imposed extreme hardship, starvation and deprivation on them. There is insecurity and rising ethnic tensions. The rampaging Fulani herdsmen have compounded the security situation in some states and the federal government is apparently doing nothing to stop the menace. The recent killings in Kaduna represent such aberration. It negates the primary function of government, which is the protection of lives and property of the citizens. Many a times, this government has failed in that regard. The situation is so bad that the fiery Catholic Priest, Rev. Fr. Ejike Mbaka, a strong supporter of President Muhammadu Buhari, reportedly admitted recently that “many Nigerians are suffering.” The preacher who hugs the limelight told Buhari that “Nigerians are hungry; they want to see more changes. There is the need to assist businessmen and women in their businesses.” Like other Nigerians and critics of the APC government, I urge the government to change its economic team and policies. The causes of the economic downturn have not been adequately addressed by the government. Nigeria has many economists that will proffer solutions that will put the economy on the path of recovery and growth. The president must engage them now before Nigerians start feeding from the dustbins again. Since good planning is based on accurate statistics, there is the need to have the actual population figure of the country. Planning based on last census and projections by UN agencies is not helpful. If our plans are based on false figures, the outcome will never be correct. To get things right, government should remove census from politics. Population should cease being a factor in revenue allocation. Besides, government should get its war on corruption right. For the war to be won, it must be weaned of accusations of bias and selectivity. Will 2017 be good for the poor? My honest answer is that if the government gets the economy working and allow peace to reign in the Niger Delta region, the revenue base of the country, perhaps Nigerians, including the poor, will fare well in 2017. Let me know your answer as well. I wish you the best of 2017 and may your lane be smooth.

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