WE now have a duty to seriously begin to pray without ceasing for the success of the ruling All Progressives Congress [APC] political party and President Muhammadu Buhari. This is not just because the Good Book, the Holy Bible, enjoins us to constantly pray for our leaders and the peace of our country, but because it is becoming glaringly clear that if we refuse or neglect to do so, the failings of this regime on the economy front will inflict on us far more than economic pain than we can imagine. As it stands things are bad already with the possibility they will get worse. There is virtually no public power supply in spite of the 40 percent hike in electricity tariff. There are petroleum products now readily available after the country had been dogged by widespread scarcity for much of the first year of this administration but they are almost unaffordable in the wake of the almost 70 percent increase in the price of petrol. On the heels of the jerking up of the price of petrol from N86.50 to N145 per litre last month, the price of a litre of diesel which hitherto sold for between N125 to N135 moved to N180/litre.
As part of their assessment of the performance of the Buhari regime’s one year in office last month, the organised private sector issued a depressing and damning score sheet. All critical economic indicators pointed south, where south means negative. The gross domestic product [GDP] slipped deeper into the negative region; the inflation figure moved menacingly from single digit within one year to 13.7 percent and then 15.6 percent by end-May; electricity supply deteriorated to the point that it is now common to report frequent cases of generation of zero megawatts of power; the national currency continued to lose value against all global currencies in spite of the Central Bank of Nigeria [CBN] pegging the rate at N197/199 to one United States dollar up until last Monday when the new flexible foreign exchange policy commenced; unemployment rose sharply and more Nigerians have lost their jobs within that year than at any other comparable period in recent memory.
For the avoidance of doubt this administration is widely acknowledged for its commitment to tackling corruption and combating insecurity. It will not matter that the regime’s critics say that whatever gains had been made in containing the insurgent Islamist Boko Haram group have been vitiated by the frightening menace of the Fulani Militia who have been benignly tagged as herdsmen, and the perception of the anti-graft war as selective which is being prosecuted without requisite reforms of the relevant institutions. The critics may indeed have a point on the need for institution and process-driven war on corruption, but I disagree with those who fault the exercise just on the basis that it is selective. My contention is that if every administration since the return of democracy in 1999 had been committed to fighting corruption with the same level of zeal as Buhari’s, and even if their efforts had been branded as selective, the nation probably would have succeeded in reining in corruption substantially.
We can argue that the regime that established the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission [EFCC] and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission [ICPC] set out to curb graft in public office but we all know that the agencies, especially the EFCC at a stage lost focus and became a tool in the hand of the president to hunt and haunt political enemies, real and imagined.
Be that as it may, the administration of Buhari will ultimately be judged on the basis of the performance of the economy. So far it has been a disaster. And the prospects of a turnaround soon are not looking good. The fear is that if the economy fails to improve NOW the regime could become a bull in a China shop. The signs are already beginning to manifest. Some government leaders are becoming impatient and irritated. Key operatives of the APC including those in government are beginning to display the mentality of the AK-47-wielding herdsmen – obey us or be dealt a mortal blow. Their impatience is such that they no longer care where, when and how they issue threats; not even the consequences of their threats. In Geneva recently Minister of Employment, Dr. Chris Ngige said the federal government would consider the revocation of the operating licence of any bank which persisted in sacking workers in spite of government’s directive to them to stay action. I do not remember the government directing banks to stop employing staff when they had need for them. I am not also sure that the government consulted with banks when it decided massive, one fell swoop withdrawal of public sector deposits during the implementation of the Treasury Single Account[TSA] and the stoppage of over the counter payment of foreign currencies into domiciliary accounts. The TSA is a classical case of a good policy that was badly implemented. The National Auditor of the APC, George Moghalu, also added his voice in threatening banks. It’s unlikely that these acts of threat will be an incentive to potential foreign investors in our financial system or any sector for that matter.
In any case the Nigerian Employers Consultative Council [NECA] has told the minister off. It said in summary that the minister should be ignored as long as the banks that have need to downsize do so in keeping with extant labour laws. But the banks should not gloat yet. Yes, they can hire and fire but it’s not that straightforward. Within the last 25 years we have witnessed at least two episodes of banks privatizing profits while socializing debts. In the recent exercise, under the former CBN governor, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, public money was used to bail out insolvent banks and other private enterprises. And this happened in 2008/2009. Some of the beneficiary-banks did not complain then of overbearing government interference. It is the origin of the debts running into trillions of Naira which is now burdening the Assets Management Corporation of Nigeria [AMCON].
The more the economy appears not to be recovering fast the more this government will become desperate. And nothing will be spared including this democracy. It’s emerging that the Senate arm of the National Assembly [NASS] may soon be at daggers drawn with the Presidency. The on-going trial of Senate President Bukola Saraki is already a source of instability. And now there is the looming trial of Saraki, Deputy Senate President, Ike Ekweremadu and other NASS bureaucrats, serving and retired, for alleged forgery of the Senate rules that produced the presiding and principal officers on June 9, 2015. The Senate is raising the alarm and warning of dire consequences. It said its overlooking of numerous infractions by the Presidency should not be taken as a sign of weakness. I cannot in good faith advocate the shielding of suspects in any established crime but the health of our democracy should be paramount in how we handle potentially explosive issues.
The fact that the election of the presiding and principal officers of NASS did not go the way of the ruling party and the president automatically makes any adverse thing that happens to Saraki and Ekweremadu suspect even when the proper thing may have been done. Let us continue to pray for the success of the Buhari regime so that the specter of impatience and irritation will not degenerate to dictatorship.

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