…30m youths unemployed as NBS doubts FG’s job creation claim

Bimbola Oyesola, Wale SanyaoluNwokediba Micheal

Nigeria’s unemployment statistics are gradually assuming a freightening dimension like a time bomb waiting to explode. According to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) the nation’s current rate of joblessness is put at 18.8 per cent up from 14.2 per cent about 2 years ago.

The Bureau says 7.53 million Nigerians are presently unemployed, going by statistics compiled in the third quarter (Q3) of 2017.

It explains that out of 85.08 million labour force then, 77.55 million are engaged in some sort of economic activities for at least an hour a week. About 8.46 million were engaged in a job that lasts between 1-19 hours; 18.02 million for between 20-39 hours; and about 51.06 million-above 40 hours, while 7.53 million people are unemployed.

Earlier in 2017, the bureau had reported that, for nine consecutive quarters, that unemployment rate declined, but increasing the figure to 29 million.

However,  the NBS said Nigeria’s labour population increased from 83.9 million in the second quarter to 85.1 million in the third quarter of 2017, a difference of 1.2million in additional workforce.

The report revealed that the number of people in full-time employment (at least 40 hours a week) declined from 52.7 million in the second quarter 2017 to 51.1 million in the third quarters.

But in the fourth quarter of 2016, Nigeria’s unemployment rate increased from 14.2 percent to 16.2 per cent in second quarter 2017 and 18.8 per cent in the third quarter of 2017.

The number of people within the active labour force who were in unemployment or under employed also increased from 13.6 million and 17.7 million respectively in the second quarter 2017, to 15.9 million and 18.0 million in the third quarter 2017.

Youth/Graduate unemployment

The bureau noted that in keeping with recent trend in the labour market, unemployment and underemployment continued to be highest for persons aged between 15 to 34 despite the Federal Government claim that it is tackling the menace through its several intervention programmes.

Nigeria has a youth population of about 67 million, aged between 15 and 35 years. 42 per cent of these young people don’t have reliable means of livelihood while only about 20 per cent have more than secondary certificate. From that assumption, 30 million of Nigerian youths are considered to be unemployed.

But according to some economy analysts believe that unless this problem is frontally tackled by government the future might be very bleak.

“We don’t need to think of what will be the problem in ten years, we are already experiencing it now. Bulk of security challenges we have now is due to unemployment.

“It is a time bomb that if we don’t address it now it is going to consume us. Boko Haram and others like kidnapping, Niger Delta unrest and the recent herdsmen problem are all examples of what we are harvesting from rising unemployment among the youths,” says Muda Yusuf, Director General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Though the present administration has promised to  create at least five million new jobs by 2019, with 720,000 yearly, investigations show that government is yet to create 100,000 jobs in reality, in nearly three years since it assumed office.

It was against this backdrop that Statistian General of the Federation, Yemi Kale, recently disagreed with Dr. Chris Ngige, the Minister for Labour and Productivity, over his claim that the Muhammadu Buhari-led administration has created seven million jobs through its various initiatives.

Yemi Kale,  said the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) had no data on the job creation claims made by the minister.

“We don’t have the data anyway, that data of six or seven million, we don’t have that. I can’t comment on what other data users or data producers say, but I can comment on what we produce here as the official source of data”, Kale said.

He explained further:

“We have not produced any data on job creation, we produced data on people that were unemployed at a particular time and that is what we are sticking to.

“We don’t do politics at the NBS, the National Bureau of Statistics is the official source of data in Nigeria. Our law does not allow us to be countered. The law says very clearly that NBS is the official source of Nigerian data.

“Everybody else can have their opinion, they can do their own computations if they want to but when it comes to national data, the authoritative source, and the custodian of all data is the NBS.

“So we don’t comment on what other people even ministers say as far as data is concerned. Our data is for evidence based policy and decision making and that is what we do.”

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But amidst Ngige’s outburst, the Federal Government for its part admitted that the unemployment problem in the country was further exacerbated by the recession.

Giving reason for the nation’s double digit unemployment rate,  Babatunde Ruwase, the President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), blamed it on poor policy implementation by the Federal Government and the fact that “Nigeria missed certain key things that ought to be identified.”

He explained:  “For example, if we don’t get infrastructural targets right where the SME can produce, we will not get it right. If you have produce in the farm and don’t have good roads to move them to the cities, it will not materialise. If life in the rural area isn’t conducive, everyone will be rushing to the urban areas. There could be jobs in the rural areas but everyone want to be in the city. Power is also another thing that had limited our ability as a nation for industries to work with. Take a look at Apapa. A lot of people are unable to get into Apapa to pick up things because of the state of the road.”

Ruwase, however, sees way out in the Credit Registry.

He said: “I hope the government can see the Credit Registry through. The Credit Registry is used to collaterise asset of company. I think this will help the SME because, in the past, the funds are created for SME entreprenuers. But when they are pushed, the funding agencies- banks- will say it is not bankable because they don’t have collateral. But now that you can collaterise your house and cars and other things, I think it might help in a way especially if we make power easy and accessible for them to use.”

Also commenting on the unemployment data, the President  of Oil and Gas Trainers Association of Nigeria (OGTAN), Mr. Mayowa Afe, said Nigeria’s unemployment figure remained a national embarrassment and should be addressed urgently. The urgency of this issue comes from the fact that Nigeria’s population is projected to be the third largest in the world by 2050 after China and India. This then creates some anxiety among most stakeholders because even if the oil industry has all the jobs, it cannot be able to absorb this figure.

‘‘So the focus of Nigeria now should be the India and other models whereby you train people to have certifications. There is no reason why Nigerian graduates should not be employed in Ghana, Kenya and East Africa.

In those days, you see nationals of other countries coming to school in Nigeria, But today, the reverse is the case as Nigeria spends a lot of its foreign exchange paying for schools abroad. Now you see Nigerians going to Ghana, Republic of Benin and Togo for school. This is a trend that should be curtailed because if it is not, it will worsen with our population. So what we need to do is to build our own structure and capacity in-country in order to meet our own human capital needs,” he said.

Afe added that, if the country’s educational system is well funded, it will be capable of breeding an all round graduate, adding that, by so doing,  the issue of unemployment would have been addressed because graduates would be more self dependent by being entrepreneurs  and in turn create jobs rather than be job seekers.

Way out

To exit this unemployment web, the Director General of the Lagos Chambers of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Muda Yusuf argued that the problem needs to be tackled from the root and this may be dealing with the issue from the perspective of school curriculum.

“There is a disconnect between the schools and what society needs. Some institutions are using curriculum of 30 – 40 years. There is need for dynamism. Curriculum has to be dynamic and relevant so that we don’t have much gaps”, he said.

The LCCI boss said drawing an inference from the latest technology in all spheres of the economy, maritime, auto industry and others the skill content in schools needs to be enhanced.

He also reasoned that government must give special attention to the Small and Medium sector, as it has high potential in job creation.

He added: Government must create enabling environment to sustain SMEs and give considerations to sectors that can create jobs, such as agriculture, construction and services.

“It is also important for government to take preemptive steps now and invest in education.  Yusuf stated that there is strong correlation between these groups, insecurity and unemployment.

According to him, North East has high rate of poverty, unemployment and insecurity which is now spreading to North Central and South South.

Noting that level of illiteracy is high in those regions, the LCCI director general emphasised that there is high correlation between unemployment, illiteracy, poverty and insecurity. He however noted that improvement and provision of infrastructure, power, transportation and patronage of products produced within would forestall the doom that may befall the country if unemployment continues to grow at its current pace.

He stated: “Local businesses cannot be competitive, if they cannot be sustainable, that means they die early in the first three years of existence.

“Our government must put in place finance policy that will allow local business to be self reliant. The more import dependent, the less job we can create. One can imagine jobs that can be created if our refineries are working. Our construction industry is dominated by foreigners. We must have a policy in place to support local business, even if it’s not taking effect now.”

The Director General of the Nigeria Employers Consultative Association (NECA), Olusegun Oshinowo, whose organisation has always been in the forefront of creating jobs opportunity for the youths through the skill acquisition programmes and the present NECAPRENEUR also shared the same view with Muda Yusuf that healthy environment is a prerequisite for sustainable jobs creation.

He said: “There is need for a new approach to solve unemployment. Youths must embrace entrepreneurship.

“We are made to believe that youths do not have jobs because they lack technical skills, but everything depends on a healthy environment.

“If dependable variables such as: favourable policy, good governance, education, conducive environment and many others are not addressed, getting jobs will not be difficult.”

Oshinowo said the more people were gainfully employed, the more purchasing power would grow and businesses flourished.”