President Jonathan and 2015 re-election headache



Nigeria’s democracy will be tested in 2015. This indeed cannot be denied. The year is more or less the most anticipated one in the history of Nigeria’s politics since the transition to democracy in May 29, 1999. It holds the future of Nigeria’s quest on a consolidated democracy.

There is no gainsaying that Nigeria is experiencing her longest practice of democracy since her inception. Compared to the other interrupted ones in the nation’s history, this is her 15th year of civilian rule and counting.

About 18 clear months to the 2015 general election, tension is already mounting in the country about which of the geo-political zones will produce the next president.
The speculated second term ambition of President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan is one factor that is contributory to the rising tension especially between some interested groups in the North and the Niger Delta where the president hails from.
Jonathan contested and won the last presidential election to the consternation of the North.
Recall that President Jonathan’s political party, the  Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has a zoning policy where power should rotate between the North and South.

After former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s two terms as president, power returned to the North with late President Umaru Yar’Adua emerging the president. Unfortunately, Yar’Adua died in office before he could complete his first term, paving the way for Jonathan who was his deputy to succeed him.  President Jonathan later contested and won the 2011 general election, after defeating former vice president Atiku Abubakar in the PDP presidential primaries. The North represented by the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) didn’t like it.

A press statement by the group’s spokesman, Professor Ango Abdullahi states that “the North is determined and is insistent that the leadership of the country will rotate to it in 2015”.
Consequently, with the next election fast approaching, the group is insisting that a northerner must emerge president, just as they are against Jonathan presenting himself for re-election. Alhaji Lawal Kaita, a close ally of Atiku Abubakar states that “this time around he is insisting that a Northerner must emerge as President of the country by 2015 or there would be no Nigeria any more”.

The position of the ACF and critical stakeholders in the North expectedly  drew the ire of some individuals and groups in the Niger Delta.
Former president of Ijaw Youth Congress (IYC) and leader of the Niger Delta Peoples Volunteer Force (NDPVF), Mujahid Dokubo-Asari, in an interview with  reporters earlier in the year stated that “Nigeria would boil … there would not be peace in not only Niger- Delta if Jonathan doesn’t become the president in 2015 unless God takes his life”.
An Ijaw leader and elder statesman, Chief Edwin Clark has stated that “nothing and no one can stop President Goodluck Jonathan in his quest to remain in office in 2015 as President”.

Chief Clark noted that it was the constitutional right of President Jonathan to contest for re-election in 2015. Although, Clark departed from Dokubo when he stated that, “there won’t be post election violence if he (Jonathan) fails to get a return ticket”.

In response to the above in an interview with the National President of the African Youth for Conflict Resolution (AYCR), Dr. Suleiman Shuaibu Shinkafi reported that “the Northern youths are no longer going to tolerate such inciting comments coming from Asari Dokubo and it is totally acceptable… they are battle ready”.
But Dokubo insists that “the current insecurity and tension in the country would be a child’s play if President Goodluck Jonathan fails to win a second term in 2015.

He said that Niger Delta will ensure the nation does not know peace if Jonathan is prevented from returning to office after the 2015 general elections”.

However, President Jonathan has  not stated whether or not he will contest the 2015 presidential election, but not a few believe that he would be seeking a second term in the next election.
Analysts believe that it is such comments as  “North must return to power in 2015 at all costs and by any means necessary and that if Jonathan doesn’t return as President in 2015, there would be another civil war in Nigeria”  is setting the country on the edge; especially when considered against the backdrop of prediction that Nigeria may become a failed state in 2015.

The United States of America had stated in 2005 that Nigeria was at the precipice and may become a failed state in 2015.

However, in spite of fears expressed within and outside Nigeria on what awaits the country in 2015,  President Jonathan is of the view that those predicting the disintegration of the country will be disappointed.

According to him, “those who have predicted that Nigeria will break up by the turn of the century when the country will be marking its centenary anniversary will be disappointed because Nigeria will continue to remain one indivisible entity”.

Former Military President, General Ibrahim Babangida has said the country will survive 2015 as it has done in the past challenges.

“The nation would not disintegrate despite the political hiccups and myriads of challenges bedeviling it in recent times”. He concludes that “in spite of the claim by alarmists who want to instill fear into the people, Nigeria is a blessed country that can never break up,” he stated.

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  2. Listen. There is always a light wherever u see darkness & vice versa. Every rumour has an element of truth. If we want this country to be good,old men from 70 yrs & above should hands off from dictating what happens in the country’s polity. They are the cause of our political problems period. They should go and enjoy their stolen money in their various heavens they built on earth till they die and leave the young generation alone to live

  3. Jona and his handlers are loosing sleep over the situation they find themselve becouse he is hell bent on succeding himselp forgeting the fact that he got power with or without litle strugle due to the dead of his boss

  4. NORTH SAYS POWER MUST RETURN TO THEM IN 2015 OR ELSE THERE WILL BE NO MORE ONE NIGERIA, SOUTH INSISTS POWER MUST SURELY REMAIN IN THEIR DORMAIN BEYOND 2015 OR THERE WILL BE BLOOD SHED. These are lugubrious ignominious statements oozing from human beings who have no solution to the perennial imbroglio and political impasse Nigeria has found themselves in. Surely, if these words proceeded from people’s mouth word to word, incontrovertibly, they need some rest in the infirmary for the encephalopathy. The onus of moving Nigeria forward rests with those who can proffer solutions on the mired of problems confronting and oscillating the nation rather than those who are drunk in the Bermuda triangle of ethno-religious idiosyncrasies. Since all these gibberish gambit-doism is aimed at who controls the central government, is it not time to decentralize the center ?. The president, GEJ has only two options to choose from, and that is to call off the northern bluff and contest or call for a conference where the stake holders will decide how they want to be governed and relate with their African brothers. He as the president will midwife the transition which will usher in a new constitution while his exit date will be October 1 2015. Not only will he depart from the scene , a whole bunch of other politicians will also follow suit because a better criterion for selecting our leaders will be introduced. When we decentralize the center, fund the other segment of the federation better, shelve most of the responsibilities the federal government has arrogated to themselves, then any state or local government who couldn’t plan for her people will only blame her leaders rather than the central government. I pray that the president will be led by the God of wisdom to choose and act right.

  5. I love this author for this little and and dangerous truth…”Nigeria’s democracy will be tested in 2015. This indeed cannot be denied. The year is more or less the most anticipated one in the history of Nigeria’s politics since the transition to democracy in May 29, 1999. It holds the future of Nigeria’s quest on a consolidated democracy.” Is good to know and that…

    When you fight through difficulties, you reveal your greatness. And since we have all had to fight through challenges at some point in our lives, we all have greatness inside of us.

    The measure of one’s greatness is found in the size of the challenges overcome.

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