As I see it, the statement two weeks ago by the Chief of Army Staff (COAS), Lt.- General Tukur Buratai, that some politicians were making moves to have meetings with some military officers and warning them against it, does not suggest that there is a plan to carry out a coup d’état yet. Rather, I think he spoke after some officers who had been approached reported the matter to him, and that he came out to get the other officers who might have been or may be contacted not to play ball with the putsch – promoting and instigating politicians. But I would have preferred General Buratai getting the officers contacted to have taped their meetings and discussions with the politicians and made arrests before coming out with his public statement.
I see two reasons for why some politicians and soldiers, serving or retired, may want a coup carried out now. The first is Katsina State – born President Muhammadu Buhari’s fight against corruption, which some affected northern and southern politicians and soldiers or their supporters, would be out to stop. The other reason are the northern politicians and soldiers who fear that Buhari’s ill – health could soon make him resign or lose his life and who do not want the Vice – President, Yoruba – born Professor Yemi Osinbajo to succeed him.
Believing that if he takes over he may behave as Dr. Goodluck Jonathan did in 2011, when he served out the last one year of late Kastina State – born President Umaru Yar’Adua and used the power and influence of incumbency to seek and win re-election in 2011. But whichever of the two reasons is making them think of a coup, the northern politicians and military officers concerned are simply naïve. With the billions of naira and billions of dollars Buhari is recovering from corrupt politicians, military officers, businessmen and others, they should know most Nigerians will think they carried out their insurrection because of the war against financial and economic vices. And as a result will resist them until their government falls or a peoples revolution takes place.
But even if the situation arises for Osinbajo to take over as president I do not see him following the footsteps of Jonathan because Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, his fellow Yoruba, was the nation’s president for eight years from May 29, 1999 – May, 28, 2007. So, he knows it will not be proper for a Yoruba man to aspire to be the head of state in 2019. In other words, his position is not like that of Jonathan whose Ijaw people had never produced the nation’s First Citizen before and thought that if he did not use his office to win re-election in 2011, he or someone else from their ethnic group might not have another opportunity to be president in the nearest future.
There is also the fact that Osinbajo is a professor of law, a pastor of the Redeemed Christian Church of God and an incorruptible man who on assumption of office as Vice – President in 2015 publicly declared his assets, whereas Jonathan as Vice – President in 2007 and as President in 2011 never did so. Another thing to consider is that Osinbajo is married to a granddaughter of late Chief Obafemi Awolowo, the legendary political leader of the Yoruba. So, he would not be disposed to tarnishing his own reputation as a clergyman and a university professor of law, nor would he want to damage the name of his grandfather – in – law’s family, knowing that the old man would never have breached a trust or do anything to undermine the nation’s oneness and stability.
I pray President Buhari is able to complete his term in 2019. But if some northern army officers overthrow him before then to prevent Osinbajo from succeeding him, then southerners should rise up against them. I am happy that Senator Bola Tinubu who governed Lagos State from 1999 – 2007 and a formidable Yoruba leader and that of the ruling All Progressives Congress has already said that he and his supporters will resist such a putsch.
But I think it is still necessary for the leaders of the South – East, South – West and South – South to meet and come out with a joint statement on the matter. Ditto the chieftains of the militant groups in the three southern zones. Each side should make it clear that a successful coup by northern soldiers would be resisted by all southerners and that they would work towards the North and South going their separate ways. With the South becoming three or more independent nations and northerners deciding the number of countries their region should have.
A successful northern officers’ coup would mean their government ensuring that the next president after their regime would still come from their region. Since there is no zoning policy in the country’s constitution they would say the new Fifth Republic is a clear dispensation from the Fourth Republic they terminated. During the Second Republic the Igbo were set to produce the next president in Vice – President Alex Ekwueme. They believed President Shehu Shagari was overthrown on Saturday, December 31, 1983 three months into his second term, to prevent an Igbo from becoming president in 1987. And that they did not carry out the coup in 1985 or 86 so as not to make their anti – Igbo motive apparent.
By 2023, fairness, justice and promoting national unity dictate that the Igbo should produce the nation’s president. Given this, why would they not see a coup between now and 2019 as aimed at stopping them from coming up with the country’s president in 2023? A food for thought that a military coup is against national peace, unity and well – being. So, a coup carried out to protect and foster corruption or sectional domination of the country by any group must be challenged and made impossible.