By Steve Obum Orajiaku
“OUT of clutter, find simplicity.
From discord, find harmony.
In the middle of difficulty, lies opportunity.
– Albert Einstein.
On September 23, 2016 on the morning program of one of the independent television networks “Recession: Economy faces stagflation”, was the topic of their discourse with an economic expert. I tried to define that uncommon economic jargon. Stagflation in a layman view is a combination of two words namely stagnant and inflation. I think, in the light of Nigeria prevailing economic dire situation, stagflation will be construed to be an economic situation whereby inflation is blended with stagnant or falling output and employment.
If you are at a loss what exactly is happening in Nigeria, especially in our economic sector, reading the above definition will be both enlightening and insightful. But interestingly, an expert recently questioned if, in the true sense of the word inflation, is that truly what the country is presently undergoing, when we are rather operating an import-based economy thus, a consumption prone nation instead of being an export-based or industrialized nation hence, a producing country. It is more appropriate and apt for a production run economy to suffer or be blamed for inflation than a basically consumption-based one. But just as the topic of this discussion says, I am not going to be so much concerned and focused on the details of what the economic debacle or challenge which we are currently confronted with is more than I want to be with regards to what the gigantic economic debacle begets for the entire nation. Thus I choose to entitle it: Recession – Necessity or Adversity is the mother of invention.
The most successful and economically independent and highly industrialized nations in the world are not found among the number of others which can boast of the endowment of natural resources especially crude oil identified under the umbrella name Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, established in 1960, headquartered in Vienna in 1965 by the pioneer member nations such as Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, Iraq, Venezuela, Kuwait, etc. Nigeria belongs to the latter group of OPEC nations and not yet (I mean, not yet) to the aforementioned highly developed nations. However, the fascinating thing is that this seemingly economic sleeping giant has every potential and qualities requisite to belong if not surpass the privileged few, successful and economically independent nations.
The pertinent question becomes, why are we so jinxed to the point that we are used to be likened to the proverbial “eagle with clipped wings that it possibly won’t fly”. I hate to resort to the consolatory corner that this economic stagnancy or developmental retrogression is not peculiar to us as a country, and that our fellow natural resources-blessed countries too suffer same. Balderdash! Who is holding Nigerians down from rising out of our self-inflicted complacency, dust our hands and legs, cease from looking down, (exploring ground for oil in the gray part of the country) or backward (desist from blame game of the past governments), but look upward and forward and within us with the intents to dig out and harness the unlimited potentials lying dormant and latent in (and not around) us. I foresaw that the economic emancipation that will, by implication, extend to other sectors of the nation’s life, shall be predicated on whatever side the previous election pendulum will swing to.
I foresaw this prevailing and inexorable economic tribulation fast approaching so unavoidable a circumstance that I reluctantly agreed in a submissive manner that this can only be a disguised blessing for the entire nation. If we fail it again this time and this rare opportunity to rise above board proves elusive for us, it is hard for me to say, but we may never recover from the devastating trauma or pick up the residue this recession will ultimately leave behind on Nigerians.
A veteran journalist, Thomas Friedman, in his book “The world is flat” convincingly explains why the countries devoid of natural resources tend to prosper thus, “the ideal country in a flat world is the one with no natural resources, because countries with no natural resources tend to dig inside themselves. They try to tap the energy, entrepreneurship, creativity, and intelligence of their own people – men and women – rather than drill on oil well. Taiwan is a barren rock in a typhoon – laden sea, with virtually no natural resources – nothing but the energy, ambition, and talent of its people – and today it has the third largest financial reserves in the world. The success of Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, and Coastal China can all be traced to a similar flatness’’. A major developmental restraint Nigeria suffers is what the ace economist, Adam Smith, called Creative Destruction. This oxymoron cum economic phrase simply means a society’s ability and willingness to pull together and sacrifice for the sake of economic development and the presence in a society of leaders with the vision to see what needs to be done in terms of development and the willingness to use power to push for change rather than to enrich themselves and preserve the status quo. It is a synergy of conspiracy and confederation by an old and outdated order militating against a modern, advance and encompassing idea that intends to replace the former for an accelerated development.
But there are standing cabals that have sworn and mortgaged their lives that things won’t work. To achieve or run an economical progressive nation, certain indices and investor friendly policies, ab initio, have to be in place and operational. An economic policy that rather creates or encourages sluggish bureaucratic bottlenecks hampering development in a country is obviously a disincentive to aspiring foreign investors.
To set up an industry or establish a company etc in Nigeria, what does it cost in terms of time, operational demands by the government in comparison with other developed countries such as China, UAE countries, etc. Few have argued that the recent unfriendly and stringent forex policy that sent the existing investors in Nigeria parking was targeted at some unscrupulous Nigerians whose stock in trade was fund repatriation, money laundering, etc. But must we throw away the baby with the bathwater. Then it becomes anti-climax, and we are not ready for the repercussions and consequences.
We now have the ample opportunity to make the best out of the current dire economic situation in the country. This country went from brain gain to brain drain around the civil war period. If we can downplay on nepotism and tribalism, create enabling environment for our “Millenium” entrepreneurs now living in the advanced and developed economies for them to return and unleash their wealth of knowledge and exposure on their fatherland, Nigeria, there would be a widespread, instantaneous yet unprecedented turnaround in this country.
Orajiaku writes via [email protected]
Lagos State.