This write-up  is not an endorsement of Governor Willie Obiano, neither is it a partisan effort to repudiate him, but rather my unbiased reading of the political barometer of the upcoming governorship election scheduled for November 18, 2017 which, by the way, I  predict will be a straight fight between APGA and PDP.  How APGA and PDP will fare depends on so many factors.

As an incumbent, the election is for Obiano to win or lose. In most democracy,  it is much easier for an incumbent to make the rain due to the huge resources available to them, the instrument of state under their control coupled with the fact that they had the advantage of 4 years of campaign already in place before the whistle. Every single life he touched and every project that can be referenced to from the date of his swearing-in is a campaign. These and many more  gives an incumbent with eyes on history a clear 30-40 per cent head start.

I have heard arguments against Obiano’s performance, which his critics  said are lopsided , lackluster and sometimes outright lies. They make reference to his litany of MOUs with investors that is neither here nor there.  I have also read how he squandered billions left by his predecessor, how  the state is now owing debt of nearly N60 billion and how what is on ground does not justify the huge expenditure, something his vocal supporters disagree with.

Asked to point out any tangible achievement of Obiano in the last four years to justify another mandate, his supporters will point to the fact that the state has been prompt in the payment of workers’ salaries. Workers salaries do not come any time after the 25th of every month. Granted that workers are entitled to their wages, and no government should boast of achieving anything if all it does is pay salaries of workers. In a country where most states owe salaries upwards of 10 months, I find this feat commendable.  If civil servants are happy based on prompt payment of salaries,  it is expected that they may not want change for now.

Security is also listed as the most visible achievements of the Obiano administration. It is remarkable that he is able to hold on to the gains made by his predecessor in this wise. On assuming office, Gov Obiano launched Operation Kpochapu, with the mandate to clean up the state of criminal elements. For this, Anambra prides itself as a safe state.

Another argument in favor of Obiano is the choose-your-project initiative which has benefited all the communities in the state. The project was contrived on the need for communities to identify their own priority projects and get funding from the state government for its execution to the tune of N20million, using a local contractor from the community. The idea was devoid of the usual way government moves into a community and builds a project for them, without recourse to what the real needs of the people are. This has helped Obiano to connect with the communities hitherto left behind.

Another of his achievements is the often criticized triple flyover bridges in Awka, which has come to be known as Obiano’s signature project. His supporters also point to payment of pensions and gratuities as part of his success story. Two categories of people that have suffered great neglect in the hands of successive governments are retirees of the state’s print and electronic media; National Light and Anambra Broadcasting Service (ABS) and employees of the state water corporation. Both groups now have a reason to smile, being that the state have commenced the payment of the salaries of members of staff of the state water corporation. It is also the same for the retirees of the National Light and ABS whom, they said, have started receiving their pensions. 

I also give credit to Obiano campaign team for their uncanny ability to muddle the water , confuse issues and divert attention from his weaknesses. Interestingly they had successfully made former Governor Peter Obi, who, though not on the ballot, the issue of their campaign rather than square up against the PDP candidate, Oseloka Obaze.

The above analysis does not suggest that Obiano is home and dry and therefore invincible come November 18. Of-course the 30 per cent advantage  can be wiped out and overtaken, given the right candidate. The difference between losing and winning an election  is in the  ‘strategy’. Hillary Clinton was good to go in the last US election just like Obiano today look good to go, but the deal maker, Donald Trump had the right strategy. And despite the odds against Mr. Trump, he went ahead to defeat Hillary to become the US President. Obiano should worry about Obi’s ability to cut and make a last minute deal.

For those familiar with the story of David and Goliath as told in the Old Testament of the Bible. Permit me to recast the story as is told in 1 Samuel 17. 1-7 : There was a war in the land of Israel. King Saul and the Israelites were fighting the Philistines. One of the Philistines was a giant. His name was Goliath. He was very big and strong. The Israelites were afraid of him.

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Goliath shouted to the Israelites. He told them to choose a man to fight him. No one wanted to fight the giant. Goliath shouted to them every morning and every night for forty days. None of the Israelites would fight him.

David’s brothers were in the Israelite army. Jesse sent David to take some food to them. David saw the giant. He heard Goliath shouting. He saw that the men were afraid of Goliath.

David said he would fight the giant. David knew God would help him. He picked up five stones. He took his sling and went to fight Goliath.

Goliath saw that David was young. He was angry. He shouted at David and made fun of him. David shouted back.

Goliath came at David to fight. Then David put a stone in his sling and threw the stone. The stone hit Goliath in the head. Goliath fell to the ground. David took Goliath’s sword and cut off his head. The Philistines saw David kill Goliath. They were afraid and ran away.

This story is not just a mystical bible story but a lesson in strategy. David was able to defeat Goliath by devising a simple strategy. A good strategy doesn’t need to be cumbersome. As a seasoned political consultant, I have evaluated the PDP and APGA campaigns, and  all I see is a Goliath but no David. To beat APGA in this election, the challenging PDP need to be better organized on ground than APGA. They need a better motivated ground support and energized grassroots hunger for victory and capable of overwhelming the tested APGA winning machine.

If the vote is held today with things remaining as they are currently configured and barring any last minute unforeseen twist of fate , I  dare say that Willie is good to go back to his work as governor. This I guess will be bad news for his challengers.

Whether he will use his renewed mandate to willingly work for the people or sleep through the next four years is left for posterity to determine.

Next week, I will deal on ‘ Why Obaze may be the man’ followed by ‘ The big fall: Why Andy Uba lost to Nwoye’.