From Ndubuisi Orji, Abuja

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All eyes are on the Supreme Court, as Nigerians anxiously wait for its verdict on the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)  leadership dispute.
The fate of the PDP lies precariously in whatever verdict the apex court will give in the crisis that has bedeviled the opposition party in the past one year.
The Supreme Court  after hearing an appeal filed by the PDP National Caretaker Committee led by Senator Ahmed Makarfi challenging a judgment of the Court of Appeal,  Port Harcourt Division, that declared Senator Ali Modu Sheriff as the “authentic National Chairman “ of the party, last Monday reserved its judgment.
Prior to the commencement of Supreme Court case, the Sheriff group had tried albeit unsuccessfully to stall the appeal.
In a motion filed before the Court by his counsel, Akinlolu Olujinmi (SAN) the embattled PDP leader contended that the Caretaker Committee was not competent to institute any suit in the name of the PDP, as it is only (Sheriff) and his group is recognised to act on behalf of the party in line with the court judgment.
That motion was however thrown out by the Supreme Court.
Genesis of the crisis
Crisis broke out in the party exactly one year ago when its national convention in Port Harcourt sacked the National Working Committee ( NWC) led by Sheriff and replaced them with the caretaker committee.
Since that convention, which was held on May 21, 2016, neither Sheriff nor the party has known peace.
In February last year, some PDP governors had drafted Sheriff into the leadership of the party inspite of protestations by concerned party chiefs.  The protesting party men and women were later pacified with assurances by the governors that the former Borno governor would only complete the tenure of former National Chairman of the party,  Adamu Muazu, and then bow out. Muazu was forced to resign his position after the humiliating defeat the PDP suffered in the 2015 general election.
However,  few weeks to the party’s convention, where Sheriff was supposed to handover to a new national chairman,  the music changed.
The party’s Ad-hoc Committee on zoning, chaired by Akwa Ibom State Governor, Udom Emmanuel, zoned the national chairmanship position to the North East,  where the former Borno governor hailed from.
Analysts say that decision was akin to zoning the position to Sheriff. Expectedly, Sheriff emerged the sole candidate for the chairmanship seat. The stage was therefore set for his coronation in Port Harcourt.
But unfortunately for him,  the governors,  who had along been his backbone , withdrew their support at the eleventh hour.
Sensing that the table had turned against him,  the PDP leader refused to show up at the convention venue.  Instead, he hurriedly called a press conference in a hotel in Port Harcourt and called off the convention,  citing an order of a Federal High Court in Lagos.
When it became obvious that Sheriff was not going to show up at the convention venue, the then PDP deputy national chairman,  Uche Secondous took charge of proceedings.
After the dissolution of the NWC led by the former Borno State governor , the National Convention set up a National Caretaker Committee.
One party, two leaderships
Since that botched May 21, 2016 National Convention, the PDP has been  been polarised  between  Sheriff and the Caretaker Committee, with both operating from two different secretariats in Abuja.
While Sheriff is supported by a handful of party stalwarts, the caretaker is backed by the PDP Governors Forum and other critical interest groups in the party.
After some members of his former NWC failed to go along with him, Sheriff appointed Dr Cairo Ojougboh, a former zonal chairman of the party in the South-South as new deputy national chairman, while Bernard Mikko was appointed as acting national publicity secretary.
The leadership crisis has also polarised the party in the various states in the country. Attempts by the caretaker committee to hold another National Convention  in Port Harcourt  last August, where it planned to hand over to a new leadership was thwarted by a court order obtained by the Sheriff group.
The  sack of the Sheriff-led NWC triggered a chain of litgations in several courts across the country. At a point, courts of coordinate jurisdiction were giving conflicting orders on the PDP, causing so much confusion in the process.
The many court cases culminated in the  Appeal Court judgment, which declared the May 21, 2016 convention of the party null and void and affirmed Sheriff as the PDP.  It is this judgment that the caretaker committee,  supported by the party organs, is challenging at the Supreme Court.
Botched peace initiatives
Since the crisis broke out last year, there have been several efforts to resolve it but each one of them ended in futility.
The most recent was the political solution to end the crisis spear-headed by former president Goodluck Jonathan.
After the Court of Appeal, Port Harcourt Division, in its judgement on the legality of the May 21, 2016 PDP convention declared Sheriff the authentic national chairman of the party,  the PDP Governors Forum at a meeting with Jonathan agreed to explore a political solution to end the crisis.
Efforts to concretise that initiative fell like a pack of cards. A stakeholders meeting convened by  Jonathan in furtherance of the search for political solution ended in a stalemate after Sheriff walked out on Jonathan and other PDP leaders because he was not recognised to speak as national chairman.
Sheriff later told journalists that he was sticking with the recommendation of the party’s Reconciliation Committee headed by Governor Serieke Dickson of Bayelsa State.
The Dickson committee, set up prior to the botched May 21, 2016 convention,  had in its report recommended that the party should hold a national unity convention not later than June 30, this year.
The committee also recommended a broad based national convention committee whose  membership would consist of nominees of the PDP  Governors Forum,  the party caucus in both chambers of the National Assembly and other interest groups in the party.
While the embattled PDP chairman is clinging to the Dickson committee report, promising not to seek a reelection at the proposed convention, supporters of the caretaker committee have vowed not to have anything to do with him.
Consequently, the various organs of the party have refused to send their nominees for the proposed convention committee.
The Minority Leader,  House of Representatives , Leo Ogor, said himself and other PDP leaders had vowed not to have anything to do with Sheriff as far as the PDP is concerned.  He told Sunday Sun that this was because they did not trust him.
According to the lawmaker, the party leaders made a grave mistake by bringing Sheriff into the PDP in the first place.
“It is a major mistake that we made.  A very regrettable one. Sometimes it is too late to cry when the head is off. We are already in it.
“By bringing the person of Sheriff into our system. I regret it. I regret it immensely. It is a very regrettable mistake. We wouldn’t have found ourselves in this predicament. It is sad,” he said.
However,  a member of the House of Representatives  from Edo State, Hon Ehiozuwa Agbonnayinma, said the problem was not with Sheriff,  but with a tiny cabal within the PDP who wanted to dictate the way things should be done in the opposition party.
The lawmaker pointedly accused the PDP governors of fighting the party chairman because of his resolve to return the party to the grass roots.
“What is happening is because of those cabals. Over the years they have taken the people for a ride, taking members of PDP for a ride. There is no Villa to go anymore.  There is no Presidency.  We are not in government. What they use to do, they gang up, they go to the Villa.
“All the chairman that had been removed in the past ,  the same process that was used to remove them was going to the Villa and ganging up to say this chairman must go. Once they decided, that was it. Only a minority decided the fate of the majority,” he state.
Notwithstanding the collapse of all the peace deals,  Sheriff is insisting that he would go ahead with the convention as stipulated in the Dickson Committee’s recommendation.
But that plan has been stalled because of his inability to convene a meeting of the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the party, owing to opposition of majority of members of the party organ to his leadership.
According to Article 31(2)a of the PDP constitution (as amended in 2012),  the power  to convene a National Convention and set up a Convention Organising Committee is vested on the NEC.
The NEC, which is the second highest organ of the party after the national convention,  consists of PDP governors, select members of the National Assembly caucus of the party in both chambers , the six national vice chairmen and state chairmen of the party among others.
Analysts argue that Sheriff’s inability to proceed with his planned convention because of opposition by party bigwigs is an indication that he merely holding the shells of the party,  while the caretaker committee is with the soul.
A costly crisis
The leadership imbroglio in the PDP has taken a toll on the opposition party, as its fortunes  have nose-dived in the past one year.
The party’s loss in the gubernatorial elections in Edo and Ondo states last year and in other elections is attributeable to the crisis. Since the crisis started,  the PDP had gone for  elections with a divided house, fielding parallel candidates in most instances. This has resulted in losses in elections, where ordinarily the party would have won.
In the case of the Edo governorship election, while the caretaker committee fielded Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu as its candidate,  the Sheriff group nominated Hon Mathew Iduoriyrkemwen as its flag bearer in the gubernatorial contest.  However, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) recognised Ize-Iyamu as the authentic candidate.
Similarly,  during the Ondo gubernatorial poll,  the two feuding groups also nominated two different candidates.  The Sheriff camp nominated business mogul,  Jimoh Ibrahim as its candidate while Mr Eyitayo Jegede emerged as the candidate of the PDP faction loyal to Makarfi.
The legal dispute over  who is the authentic candidate was eventually resolved in favour of Jegede by the court few days to the election.  Unfortunately, the PDP candidate had little or no time to market himself effectively. Like his counterpart in Edo,  Jegede lost the election.
There are fears that the same fate may befall the opposition party in the Anambra State gubernatorial poll scheduled for November this year, except party members are able to close ranks before the election.
The crisis has equally affected the cohesion of the party caucus in the National Assembly, particularly in the House of Representatives where the PDP members are torn between Sheriff and Makarfi.
In recent times, a defection gale has hit the party as members have been migrating to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).  At  the last count,  about 10 members of the party in the National Assembly had defected to the APC,  allegedly as a result of the division in the party.
Prominent among these defectors are Senators Andy Uba from Anambra State and John Enoh from Cross River State. This is apart from other top shots in the party who had defected in the past one year.
There are indications that more federal lawmakers elected on the PDP platform, as well as other party bigwigs nationwide are on their way out of the opposition party.
Anxious wait for Supreme Court verdict
Although the Supreme Court is the last bus stop in the legal tussle,  analysts argue that its judgment may not necessarily end the crisis in the PDP.
Already,  the chairman of the PDP Governors Forum, Ayo Fayose and other chieftains of the party has threatened to leave the party if the Supreme Court case ends in favour of the Sheriff.
There are other party stalwarts who shares the same sentiment with Fayose,  who is also the governor of Ekiti State.
However,  not a few think the apex court would do well to give its judgment quickly,  more especially as preparation for the 2019 general election is gathering momentum.
Analysts believe that whatever verdict the Supreme Court comes up with will either pull the party back from the brink or sink it finally.